luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

New Mexico State at Tennessee, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat New Mexico State 42–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 100% favorite.

Final

New Mexico State Aggies 9
Tennessee Volunteers 42

November 15, 2025 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −41.5

Luck index 0 Tennessee about even · 0 New Mexico State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 0, Tennessee wins 10.

  1. 1 NMSU 0 TENN 10
  2. 2 NMSU 17 TENN 34
  3. 3 NMSU 13 TENN 37
  4. 4 NMSU 0 TENN 29
  5. 5 NMSU 7 TENN 39
  6. 6 NMSU 7 TENN 42
  7. 7 NMSU 7 TENN 45
  8. 8 NMSU 0 TENN 43
  9. 9 NMSU 17 TENN 64
  10. 10 NMSU 7 TENN 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

New Mexico State wins 0% of them, Tennessee 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
New Mexico State by 17+0.0%
New Mexico State by 9–160.1%
New Mexico State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Tennessee by 1–81.3%
Tennessee by 9–163.5%
Tennessee by 17+94.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to Tennessee: the final margin was Tennessee by 33, without the luck Tennessee by 29.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Barker, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: New Mexico State 3 for 14 yards, Tennessee 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:51 Offside on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +1.1 pts
Q1 5:43 Roughing the Kicker on New Mexico State, 0 yards 0% TENN +0.7 pts
Q3 9:19 Roughing the Passer on Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% TENN +1.7 pts
Q3 4:41 Face Mask on Tennessee, 14 yards 0% NMSU +0.9 pts
Q3 3:49 Face Mask on New Mexico State, 9 yards 0% TENN +1.3 pts
Q4 10:46 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards 0% NMSU +1.1 pts
Q4 4:00 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 11 yards 0% NMSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while New Mexico State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% NMSU NMSU: Punt
2 Q1 11:53 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% TENN NMSU: Punt
3 Q1 9:30 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% TENN NMSU: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 6:30 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% NMSU NMSU: Turnover
5 Q1 4:05 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% NMSU NMSU: Punt
6 Q3 9:19 Roughing the Passer on Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% TENN NMSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 7:47 New Mexico State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% TENN NMSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 6:58 Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% TENN TENN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

New Mexico State 0% · Tennessee 100%

Final margin
Tennessee by 33
Luck in points
3.5 for Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 29.5
Replay with same day's form
New Mexico State 0% · Tennessee 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · New Mexico State · Tennessee

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