Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Liberty at Florida International, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Liberty 34–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): Florida International was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to Liberty.
Final (OT)
 Liberty Flames | 27 |
|---|---|
 Florida International Panthers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Florida International lucky · −35 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 3, Florida International wins 7.
- 1 LIB 27 FIU 7
- 2 LIB 27 FIU 17
- 3 LIB 24 FIU 21
- 4 LIB 17 FIU 20
- 5 LIB 17 FIU 21
- 6 LIB 14 FIU 21
- 7 LIB 14 FIU 24
- 8 LIB 7 FIU 20
- 9 LIB 7 FIU 24
- 10 LIB 7 FIU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 35% of them, Florida International 65%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 4.8% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.9% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Florida International by 17+ | 20.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Grant, 39 yds made · 73% expected
- N. Grant, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Billingsley, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Billingsley, 48 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Liberty 6 for 50 yards, Florida International 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:53 | Sideline Interference on Florida International, 15 yards | +3% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:49 | Roughing the Passer on Liberty, 15 yards | +3% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:14 | Disconcerting Signals on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:45 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:40 | Pass Interference on Florida International, 5 yards | 0% LIB +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FIU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:09 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards | +6% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yards | +6% LIB +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:52 | Delay of Game on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida International’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 8:40 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% FIU | LIB: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 6:20 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% FIU | LIB: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:36 | Florida International converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +5% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 1:09 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LIB | LIB: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:48 | J. Billingsley made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +8% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:20 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +14% LIB | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | Liberty converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 6% · Florida International 94%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 10.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 35% · Florida International 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
Florida International
More from Week 12 2025
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State JXST 35–26 · replay 64% for the winner
- UTEP at Missouri State MOST 38–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky WKU 42–26 · replay 93% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Washington State WSU 28–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner