Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State 35–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Kennesaw State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:20 left): Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 10 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Final
 Kennesaw State Owls | 26 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Jacksonville State lucky · −36 Kennesaw State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 4, Jacksonville State wins 6.
- 1 KENN 49 JXST 27
- 2 KENN 27 JXST 14
- 3 KENN 30 JXST 23
- 4 KENN 37 JXST 34
- 5 KENN 31 JXST 34
- 6 KENN 28 JXST 35
- 7 KENN 17 JXST 26
- 8 KENN 33 JXST 47
- 9 KENN 7 JXST 28
- 10 KENN 23 JXST 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kennesaw State wins 36% of them, Jacksonville State 64%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 8.3% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 16.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 23.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Williams, 29 yds missed · 86% expected
- D. Kinney, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- G. Rippa, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- D. Kinney, 25 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Rippa, 27 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Kennesaw State 12 for 102 yards, Jacksonville State 5 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:18 | Face Mask on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +1% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:01 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% JXST +3.0 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +2% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:21 | Roughing the Passer on Jacksonville State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% KENN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:24 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% JXST +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +2% KENN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% KENN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | False Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 13:08 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +2% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +2% JXST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:54 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:35 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JXST +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:24 | Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% KENN +2.6 pts |
| Q4 9:38 | Roughing the Passer on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | 0% KENN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:52 | Delay of Game on Kennesaw State, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Jacksonville State’s chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:31 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:01 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:32 | B. Williams missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +7% JXST | KENN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 5:20 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedKennesaw State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% KENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:33 | D. Kinney made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him | +5% JXST | KENN: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 0:22 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Jacksonville State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% KENN | JXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:28 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% KENN | KENN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 10:44 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% JXST | KENN: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kennesaw State 2% · Jacksonville State 98%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 9
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 11.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Kennesaw State 36% · Jacksonville State 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Kennesaw State · 
Jacksonville State
More from Week 12 2025
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Liberty at Florida International FIU 34–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- UTEP at Missouri State MOST 38–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky WKU 42–26 · replay 93% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Washington State WSU 28–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner