Week 12 2025 · November 11, 2025
Kent State at Akron, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Kent State beat Akron 42–35, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Kent State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Kent State.
Before kickoff Akron was a 69% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:25 left): Kent State fumbled and recovered it, worth 16 points of win probability to Kent State.
Final (OT)
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 42 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Kent State lucky · −57 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 4, Akron wins 6.
- 1 KENT 35 AKR 10
- 2 KENT 31 AKR 14
- 3 KENT 28 AKR 17
- 4 KENT 28 AKR 24
- 5 KENT 17 AKR 19
- 6 KENT 21 AKR 27
- 7 KENT 8 AKR 17
- 8 KENT 14 AKR 28
- 9 KENT 17 AKR 35
- 10 KENT 17 AKR 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 43% of them, Akron 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 10.9% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Akron by 17+ | 21.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Schramm, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Schramm, 41 yds missed · 72% expected
- M. Schramm, 20 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Kent State 6 for 56 yards, Akron 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:03 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% KENT +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | Kick Catch Interference on Kent State, 15 yards | +4% AKR +1.5 pts |
| Q4 14:45 | Face Mask on Akron, 15 yards | +3% KENT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Roughing the Passer on Kent State, 15 yards | +2% AKR +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards | 0% AKR +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Offside on Kent State, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% AKR +0.2 pts |
| Q4 7:11 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:06 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:10 | Akron converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% AKR | AKR: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q3 11:30 | M. Schramm missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +6% KENT | AKR: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 8:52 | Kent State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% KENT | KENT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 6:18 | Kent State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% KENT | KENT: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 4:17 | Akron fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 7:14 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% KENT | AKR: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:59 | Akron’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +13% AKR | AKR: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:25 | The game turned hereKent State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% KENT | KENT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 97% · Akron 3%
- Final margin
- Kent State by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Akron
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kent State by 11.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 43% · Akron 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Kent State · 
Akron
More from Week 12 2025
- Toledo at Miami (OH) TOL 24–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Ball State EMU 24–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ohio at Western Michigan WMU 17–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Buffalo at Central Michigan CMU 38–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Massachusetts NIU 45–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner