Week 12 2025 · November 12, 2025
Toledo at Miami (OH), Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Miami (OH) 24–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:20 left): Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to Toledo.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 24 |
|---|---|
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Toledo about even · −18 Miami (OH)
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 8, Miami (OH) wins 2.
- 1 TOL 38 M-OH 7
- 2 TOL 24 M-OH 0
- 3 TOL 23 M-OH 3
- 4 TOL 16 M-OH 0
- 5 TOL 19 M-OH 6
- 6 TOL 17 M-OH 7
- 7 TOL 12 M-OH 7
- 8 TOL 13 M-OH 10
- 9 TOL 13 M-OH 17
- 10 TOL 0 M-OH 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 82% of them, Miami (OH) 18%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 35.6% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 10.4% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Cunanan, 36 yds made · 78% expected
- D. Dzioban, 26 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Toledo 5 for 43 yards, Miami (OH) 3 for 17 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:53 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:02 | Illegal Block on Toledo, 10 yards | +1% M-OH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:00 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +1% M-OH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:08 | False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TOL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TOL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +1% M-OH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Sideline Interference on Miami (OH), 7 yards | +1% TOL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:37 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 8 yards | 0% M-OH +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Miami (OH)’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:53 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% TOL | M-OH: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 14:04 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% M-OH | M-OH: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 12:31 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% TOL | M-OH: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:43 | Toledo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% TOL | TOL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 0:11 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% TOL | M-OH: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:33 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% M-OH | M-OH: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 9:20 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +8% TOL | M-OH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:40 | Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +4% M-OH | M-OH: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 100% · Miami (OH) 0%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 21
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 82% · Miami (OH) 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Miami (OH)
More from Week 12 2025
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Ball State EMU 24–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ohio at Western Michigan WMU 17–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Buffalo at Central Michigan CMU 38–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Massachusetts NIU 45–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner