MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Miami (OH) RedHawks: luck and expected wins

Miami (OH) is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 35th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Miami (OH) wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Pittsburgh	L 14–59	4%	−4
Week 2	vs Holy Cross	W 45–7	100%	0
Week 3	@ Cincinnati	L 31–35	52%	−52
Week 4	vs UConn	W 24–21	83%	+17

Wk 1 −4 @ PITT

Wk 2 0 vs HC

Wk 3 −52 @ CIN

Wk 4 +17 vs CONN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Miami (OH) win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Bowling Green	Miami (OH) by 16.5	85%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Massachusetts	Miami (OH) by 2.0	55%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Akron	Miami (OH) by 14.9	82%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Central Michigan	Miami (OH) by 5.5	63%
Week 10 · Nov 3	vs Buffalo	Miami (OH) by 17.7	85%
Week 11 · Nov 10	vs Ohio	Miami (OH) by 3.8	59%
Week 12 · Nov 17	at Kent State	Miami (OH) by 10.6	73%
Week 13 · Nov 24	at Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 7.5	33%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Miami (OH)’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.20	+8.5
Pre-snap flags	+0.08	−1.2
Kicks	−0.19	−7.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Miami (OH) takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	@ Northern Illinois	W 25–14	75%	+25
2025 Week 13	@ Buffalo	W 37–20	80%	+20
2025 Week 7	@ Akron	W 20–7	80%	+20
2026 Week 4	vs UConn	W 24–21	83%	+17
2025 Week 9	vs Western Michigan	W 26–17	86%	+14

Unluckiest losses

Losses Miami (OH) would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	@ Rutgers	L 17–45	54%	−54
2026 Week 3	@ Cincinnati	L 31–35	52%	−52
2025 Week 4	vs UNLV	L 38–41	50%	−50
2025 Week 11	@ Ohio	L 20–24	40%	−40
2025 Week 15	vs Western Michigan	L 13–23	26%	−26

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–6	7.9	−0.9	0–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Wisconsin	L 0–17	3%	−3
Week 2	@ Rutgers	L 17–45	54%	−54
Week 4	vs UNLV	L 38–41	50%	−50
Week 5	vs Lindenwood	W 38–0	100%	0
Week 6	@ Northern Illinois	W 25–14	75%	+25
Week 7	@ Akron	W 20–7	80%	+20
Week 8	vs Eastern Michigan	W 44–30	88%	+12
Week 9	vs Western Michigan	W 26–17	86%	+14
Week 11	@ Ohio	L 20–24	40%	−40
Week 12	vs Toledo	L 3–24	18%	−18
Week 13	@ Buffalo	W 37–20	80%	+20
Week 14	vs Ball State	W 45–24	96%	+4
Week 15	vs Western Michigan	L 13–23	26%	−26
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl	vs Fresno State	L 3–18	24%	−24