luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Miami (OH) beat Northern Illinois 25–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:04 left): Miami (OH) converted 4th & 5, worth 8 points of win probability to Miami (OH).

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks 25
Northern Illinois Huskies 14

October 4, 2025 · Huskie Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −4.5

Luck index +25 Miami (OH) lucky · −25 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 7, Northern Illinois wins 3.

  1. 1 M-OH 31 NIU 0
  2. 2 M-OH 33 NIU 10
  3. 3 M-OH 17 NIU 0
  4. 4 M-OH 24 NIU 10
  5. 5 M-OH 27 NIU 17
  6. 6 M-OH 31 NIU 24
  7. 7 M-OH 13 NIU 10
  8. 8 M-OH 17 NIU 20
  9. 9 M-OH 24 NIU 31
  10. 10 M-OH 9 NIU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 75% of them, Northern Illinois 25%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+28.2%
Miami (OH) by 9–1623.9%
Miami (OH) by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation5.0%
Northern Illinois by 1–813.3%
Northern Illinois by 9–166.7%
Northern Illinois by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to Miami (OH): the final margin was Miami (OH) by 11, without the luck Miami (OH) by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Dzioban, 41 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 50 yds missed · 57% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 45 yds made · 65% expected
  • D. Dzioban, 24 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami (OH) 7 for 50 yards, Northern Illinois 6 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:45 Illegal Snap on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +0.9 pts
Q2 8:20 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +3% NIU +1.2 pts
Q3 14:55 Illegal Substitution on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NIU +0.5 pts
Q3 13:30 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NIU +0.8 pts
Q3 9:32 Holding on Northern Illinois, 7 yards +2% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q3 8:16 Illegal Touching on Miami (OH), 0 yards, wiping out the play +4% NIU +2.1 pts
Q3 8:16 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NIU +0.9 pts
Q3 7:42 Roughing the Passer on Miami (OH), 15 yards +4% NIU +1.9 pts
Q4 10:15 Delay of Game on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.4 pts
Q4 4:38 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards +1% M-OH +1.2 pts
Q4 3:45 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.4 pts
Q4 2:38 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards 0% NIU +1.0 pts

When it happened

Northern Illinois’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northern Illinois was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:23 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% NIU NIU: Punt
2 Q2 10:14 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% M-OH M-OH: Field goal
3 Q2 7:04 Miami (OH) converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% M-OH M-OH: Field goal
4 Q2 0:03 D. Dzioban missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +5% NIU M-OH: Field goal
5 Q3 12:24 Northern Illinois fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NIU NIU: Punt
6 Q3 8:16 Illegal Touching on Miami (OH), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Miami (OH), 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% NIU NIU: Punt
7 Q3 8:11 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% M-OH M-OH: Punt
8 Q3 1:43 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% NIU NIU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 69% · Northern Illinois 31%

Final margin
Miami (OH) by 11
Luck in points
7.4 for Miami (OH)
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami (OH) by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Miami (OH) 75% · Northern Illinois 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Miami (OH) · Northern Illinois

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