Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Kent State at Oklahoma, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Kent State 44–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 0 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Oklahoma about even · −1 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, Oklahoma wins 10.
- 1 KENT 7 OU 13
- 2 KENT 3 OU 16
- 3 KENT 2 OU 18
- 4 KENT 9 OU 28
- 5 KENT 0 OU 21
- 6 KENT 6 OU 30
- 7 KENT 2 OU 28
- 8 KENT 7 OU 37
- 9 KENT 0 OU 35
- 10 KENT 0 OU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 1% of them, Oklahoma 99%. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 44.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 10.4% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 82.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sandell, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- T. Sandell, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- T. Sandell, 55 yds made · 47% expected
Penalties: Kent State 4 for 19 yards, Oklahoma 3 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:55 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yards | 0% KENT +5.2 pts |
| Q1 5:29 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Penalty on Oklahoma, 12 yards | 0% KENT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | False Start on Kent State, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards | 0% KENT +3.0 pts |
| Q4 9:39 | Pass Interference on Kent State, 8 yards | 0% OU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:29 | Kent State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% KENT | KENT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:38 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% OU | KENT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:55 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPersonal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% OU | OU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 8:35 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% OU | KENT: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:19 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% KENT | OU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 5:41 | T. Sandell made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 4:24 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +0% OU | KENT: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 14:28 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% OU | OU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 0% · Oklahoma 100%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 44
- Luck in points
- 13.8 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 30.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 1% · Oklahoma 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Kent State · 
Oklahoma
More from Week 6 2025
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Buffalo BUF 31–30 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois M-OH 25–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Akron AKR 28–22 · replay 76% for the winner
- Texas at Florida FLA 29–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Alabama ALA 30–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Massachusetts WMU 21–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Kentucky at Georgia UGA 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Texas A&M TA&M 31–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner