Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Mississippi State at Texas A&M, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 31–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 9 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas A&M about even · 0 Mississippi State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 0, Texas A&M wins 10.
- 1 MSST 10 TA&M 27
- 2 MSST 7 TA&M 31
- 3 MSST 13 TA&M 42
- 4 MSST 10 TA&M 42
- 5 MSST 13 TA&M 48
- 6 MSST 10 TA&M 48
- 7 MSST 7 TA&M 49
- 8 MSST 14 TA&M 59
- 9 MSST 0 TA&M 51
- 10 MSST 6 TA&M 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mississippi State wins 0% of them, Texas A&M 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mississippi State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Mississippi State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Mississippi State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 97.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Ferrie, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Bond, 27 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Mississippi State 3 for 35 yards, Texas A&M 8 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Holding on Texas A&M, 7 yards | 0% MSST +0.4 pts |
| Q1 12:13 | Illegal Substitution on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSST +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:36 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TA&M +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +2% TA&M +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:41 | Holding on Texas A&M, 50 yards | +5% MSST +3.1 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | Roughing the Passer on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +4% MSST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:14 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSST +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:23 | Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +3% TA&M +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSST +0.2 pts |
| Q3 9:12 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:37 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 4 yards | 0% MSST +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:36 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TA&M | TA&M: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 8:13 | Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% MSST | TA&M: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 6:41 | Holding on Texas A&M, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MSST | MSST: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 4:49 | Roughing the Passer on Texas A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MSST | MSST: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 2:23 | Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 14:18 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% MSST | TA&M: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:06 | Mississippi State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MSST | MSST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mississippi State 0% · Texas A&M 100%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 22
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 21.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Mississippi State 0% · Texas A&M 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Mississippi State · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 6 2025
- Texas at Florida FLA 29–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Alabama ALA 30–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Kentucky at Georgia UGA 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kent State at Oklahoma OU 44–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner