Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Vanderbilt at Alabama, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat Vanderbilt 30–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Alabama was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 14 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Alabama about even · −11 Vanderbilt
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vanderbilt wins 1, Alabama wins 9.
- 1 VAN 28 ALA 20
- 2 VAN 21 ALA 24
- 3 VAN 21 ALA 28
- 4 VAN 14 ALA 24
- 5 VAN 13 ALA 27
- 6 VAN 14 ALA 31
- 7 VAN 14 ALA 34
- 8 VAN 7 ALA 31
- 9 VAN 10 ALA 38
- 10 VAN 0 ALA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vanderbilt wins 11% of them, Alabama 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 51.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Talty, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- C. Talty, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Talty, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Talty, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Vanderbilt 5 for 53 yards, Alabama 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:34 | Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +1% ALA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 6:17 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | +4% VAN +1.7 pts |
| Q1 4:43 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | +3% VAN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 3:45 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:09 | Offside on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ALA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:08 | Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 14 yards | +1% ALA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% VAN +5.0 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | 0% ALA +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:17 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% VAN | VAN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 3:45 | C. Talty missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on Vanderbilt, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% VAN | ALA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 10:42 | Alabama converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:17 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:50 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% VAN | ALA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 7:48 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +5% ALA | VAN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:25 | Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 10:35 | Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vanderbilt 2% · Alabama 98%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 16
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 11.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Vanderbilt 11% · Alabama 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Vanderbilt · 
Alabama
More from Week 6 2025
- Texas at Florida FLA 29–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Kentucky at Georgia UGA 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kent State at Oklahoma OU 44–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Texas A&M TA&M 31–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner