Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Texas at Florida, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida beat Texas 29–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Texas: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Texas Longhorns | 21 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Florida about even · −14 Texas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas wins 1, Florida wins 9.
- 1 TEX 31 FLA 24
- 2 TEX 9 FLA 12
- 3 TEX 20 FLA 27
- 4 TEX 10 FLA 20
- 5 TEX 6 FLA 19
- 6 TEX 21 FLA 37
- 7 TEX 14 FLA 33
- 8 TEX 10 FLA 34
- 9 TEX 14 FLA 44
- 10 TEX 14 FLA 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Texas
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Texas: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.08 | better by 0.09 |
| Texas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.40 | −0.01 | worse by 0.41 |
| Florida offenseEPA per play gained | +0.40 | +0.06 | better by 0.35 |
| Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.04 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas wins 14% of them, Florida 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 7.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Florida by 17+ | 52.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 34 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Smack, 38 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Texas 10 for 70 yards, Florida 7 for 110 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:58 | Offside on Florida, 65 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +4.0 pts |
| Q2 12:41 | Personal Foul on Texas, 15 yards | +4% FLA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +1% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:50 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:31 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FLA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +3% FLA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 13:41 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:01 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +1% FLA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:04 | Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:04 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 5:06 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:41 | Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards | +3% TEX +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | Florida fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:22 | Florida converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:46 | Florida converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:06 | Florida fumbled and Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% TEX | FLA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:57 | Florida converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:52 | Blocked punt by FloridaSpecial teams | +5% FLA | FLA: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:09 | Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:49 | Florida converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas 23% · Florida 77%
- Final margin
- Florida by 8
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida by 5.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas 14% · Florida 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Texas · 
Florida
More from Week 6 2025
- Vanderbilt at Alabama ALA 30–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Kentucky at Georgia UGA 35–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kent State at Oklahoma OU 44–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Texas A&M TA&M 31–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner