Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Kentucky at Georgia, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Kentucky 35–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 14 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Georgia about even · −1 Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 0, Georgia wins 10.
- 1 UK 21 UGA 27
- 2 UK 17 UGA 28
- 3 UK 13 UGA 30
- 4 UK 14 UGA 34
- 5 UK 7 UGA 30
- 6 UK 8 UGA 34
- 7 UK 14 UGA 45
- 8 UK 7 UGA 42
- 9 UK 7 UGA 45
- 10 UK 0 UGA 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 1% of them, Georgia 99%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 11.4% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 82.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Kentucky 6 for 41 yards, Georgia 7 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:30 | Ineligible Downfield on Kentucky, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kentucky, 6 yards | 0% UGA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:56 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% UGA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:39 | Holding on Georgia, 11 yards | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:35 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:01 | Illegal Formation on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:50 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK 0.0 pts |
| Q3 3:24 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | 0% UK +2.6 pts |
| Q4 11:19 | Ineligible Downfield on Kentucky, 5 yards | 0% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:12 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 13 yards | 0% UK +2.9 pts |
| Q4 8:06 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | 0% UK +2.7 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 5 yards | 0% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Georgia converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +1% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:51 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:30 | Ineligible Downfield on Kentucky, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:18 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% UGA | UK: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:17 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +1% UGA | UK: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:15 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% UGA | UGA: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:00 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% UK | UGA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 13:15 | Kentucky fumbled and Georgia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% UGA | UK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 0% · Georgia 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 21
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 1% · Georgia 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Kentucky · 
Georgia
More from Week 6 2025
- Texas at Florida FLA 29–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Alabama ALA 30–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Kent State at Oklahoma OU 44–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Texas A&M TA&M 31–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner