luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · October 2, 2025–October 4, 2025

Week 6 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

12 upsets in Week 6 2025. The biggest: UCLA beat Penn State 42–37 as 6% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 6 of 51 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Western Kentucky beat Delaware 27–24 in a game it wins 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 6 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 12 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
UCLA 42–37 vs Penn State 6% 59% Coin flip
Ball State 20–14 vs Ohio 18% 38% Lucky
Arkansas State 31–30 vs Texas State 18% 50% Coin flip
Akron 28–22 vs Central Michigan 33% 76% Deserved
Temple 27–21 vs UTSA 34% 76% Deserved
Virginia 30–27 @ Louisville 34% 19% Lucky
Wake Forest 30–23 @ Virginia Tech 39% 48% Coin flip
Florida 29–21 vs Texas 39% 86% Deserved
Florida Atlantic 27–21 @ Rice 39% 38% Lucky
New Mexico State 37–10 vs Sam Houston 44% 83% Deserved
Western Kentucky 27–24 @ Delaware 44% 23% Lucky
Troy 31–24 vs South Alabama 44% 86% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Virginia W 30–27 @ Louisville 19% +81
2 App State W 27–23 vs Oregon State 20% +80
3 Western Kentucky W 27–24 @ Delaware 23% +77
4 UNLV W 31–17 @ Wyoming 25% +75
5 Florida Atlantic W 27–21 @ Rice 38% +62
6 Ball State W 20–14 vs Ohio 38% +62
7 TCU W 35–21 vs Colorado 41% +59
8 Texas Tech W 35–11 @ Houston 45% +55
9 Wake Forest W 30–23 @ Virginia Tech 48% +52
10 James Madison W 14–7 @ Georgia State 49% +51
11 Arkansas State W 31–30 vs Texas State 50% +50
12 Army W 31–13 @ UAB 51% +49
13 UCLA W 42–37 vs Penn State 59% +41
14 Miami W 28–22 @ Florida State 60% +40
15 Baylor W 35–34 vs Kansas State 67% +33
16 San José State W 35–28 vs New Mexico 67% +33
17 Buffalo W 31–30 vs Eastern Michigan 68% +32
18 Kansas W 27–20 @ UCF 71% +29
19 Fresno State W 20–17 vs Nevada 73% +27
20 Navy W 34–31 vs Air Force 74% +26
21 Miami (OH) W 25–14 @ Northern Illinois 75% +25
22 Temple W 27–21 vs UTSA 76% +25
23 Akron W 28–22 vs Central Michigan 76% +24
24 Illinois W 43–27 @ Purdue 76% +24
25 Nebraska W 38–27 vs Michigan State 79% +21
26 Duke W 45–21 @ California 80% +20
27 New Mexico State W 37–10 vs Sam Houston 83% +17
28 Washington W 24–20 @ Maryland 83% +17
29 Troy W 31–24 vs South Alabama 86% +14
30 Florida W 29–21 vs Texas 86% +14
31 Clemson W 38–10 @ North Carolina 87% +13
32 Michigan W 24–10 vs Wisconsin 89% +11
33 Alabama W 30–14 vs Vanderbilt 89% +11
34 Cincinnati W 38–30 vs Iowa State 91% +9
35 SMU W 31–18 vs Syracuse 92% +8
36 Notre Dame W 28–7 vs Boise State 92% +8
37 BYU W 38–24 vs West Virginia 93% +7
38 Northwestern W 42–7 vs UL Monroe 94% +6
39 Western Michigan W 21–3 @ Massachusetts 94% +6
40 San Diego State W 45–24 vs Colorado State 95% +5
41 UConn W 51–10 vs Florida International 97% +3
42 Memphis W 45–7 vs Tulsa 97% +3
43 Georgia W 35–14 vs Kentucky 99% +1
44 Oklahoma W 44–0 vs Kent State 99% +1
45 Pittsburgh W 48–7 vs Boston College 99% +1
46 South Florida W 54–26 vs Charlotte 100% 0
47 Texas A&M W 31–9 vs Mississippi State 100% 0
48 NC State W 56–10 vs Campbell 100% 0
49 Arizona W 41–13 vs Oklahoma State 100% 0
50 Old Dominion W 47–7 vs Coastal Carolina 100% 0
51 Ohio State W 42–3 vs Minnesota 100% 0
52 Oklahoma State L 13–41 @ Arizona 0% 0
53 Coastal Carolina L 7–47 @ Old Dominion 0% 0
54 Minnesota L 3–42 @ Ohio State 0% 0
55 Mississippi State L 9–31 @ Texas A&M 0% 0
56 Charlotte L 26–54 @ South Florida 0% 0
57 Boston College L 7–48 @ Pittsburgh 1% −1
58 Kent State L 0–44 @ Oklahoma 1% −1
59 Kentucky L 14–35 @ Georgia 1% −1
60 Tulsa L 7–45 @ Memphis 3% −3
61 Florida International L 10–51 @ UConn 3% −3
62 Colorado State L 24–45 @ San Diego State 5% −5
63 Massachusetts L 3–21 vs Western Michigan 6% −6
64 UL Monroe L 7–42 @ Northwestern 6% −6
65 West Virginia L 24–38 @ BYU 7% −7
66 Boise State L 7–28 @ Notre Dame 8% −8
67 Syracuse L 18–31 @ SMU 8% −8
68 Iowa State L 30–38 @ Cincinnati 9% −9
69 Vanderbilt L 14–30 @ Alabama 11% −11
70 Wisconsin L 10–24 @ Michigan 11% −11
71 North Carolina L 10–38 vs Clemson 13% −13
72 Texas L 21–29 @ Florida 14% −14
73 South Alabama L 24–31 @ Troy 14% −14
74 Maryland L 20–24 vs Washington 17% −17
75 Sam Houston L 10–37 @ New Mexico State 17% −17
76 California L 21–45 vs Duke 20% −20
77 Michigan State L 27–38 @ Nebraska 21% −21
78 Purdue L 27–43 vs Illinois 24% −24
79 Central Michigan L 22–28 @ Akron 24% −24
80 UTSA L 21–27 @ Temple 25% −25
81 Northern Illinois L 14–25 vs Miami (OH) 25% −25
82 Air Force L 31–34 @ Navy 26% −26
83 Nevada L 17–20 @ Fresno State 27% −27
84 UCF L 20–27 vs Kansas 29% −29
85 Eastern Michigan L 30–31 @ Buffalo 32% −32
86 New Mexico L 28–35 @ San José State 33% −33
87 Kansas State L 34–35 @ Baylor 33% −33
88 Florida State L 22–28 vs Miami 40% −40
89 Penn State L 37–42 @ UCLA 41% −41
90 UAB L 13–31 vs Army 49% −49
91 Texas State L 30–31 @ Arkansas State 50% −50
92 Georgia State L 7–14 vs James Madison 51% −51
93 Virginia Tech L 23–30 vs Wake Forest 52% −52
94 Houston L 11–35 vs Texas Tech 55% −55
95 Colorado L 21–35 @ TCU 59% −59
96 Ohio L 14–20 @ Ball State 62% −62
97 Rice L 21–27 vs Florida Atlantic 62% −62
98 Wyoming L 17–31 vs UNLV 75% −75
99 Delaware L 24–27 vs Western Kentucky 77% −77
100 Oregon State L 23–27 @ App State 80% −80
101 Louisville L 27–30 vs Virginia 81% −81