Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Miami at Florida State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Florida State 28–22, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 28 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Miami lucky · −40 Florida State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 6, Florida State wins 4.
- 1 MIA 48 FSU 17
- 2 MIA 35 FSU 14
- 3 MIA 34 FSU 20
- 4 MIA 24 FSU 14
- 5 MIA 31 FSU 24
- 6 MIA 17 FSU 14
- 7 MIA 28 FSU 30
- 8 MIA 20 FSU 27
- 9 MIA 9 FSU 21
- 10 MIA 14 FSU 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 60% of them, Florida State 40%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 22.9% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.8% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Weinberg, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Weinberg, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Miami 11 for 81 yards, Florida State 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:32 | Intentional Grounding on Miami, 0 yards | 0% FSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 0:50 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:52 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:34 | Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards | +2% FSU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | Personal Foul on Florida State, 15 yards | +3% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:13 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:08 | Illegal Motion on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:40 | Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards | 0% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% FSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:04 | Pass Interference on Miami, 1 yard | 0% MIA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:27 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | Offside on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:00 | Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards | +2% FSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:38 | Miami converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:32 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedIntentional Grounding on Miami, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +3% FSU | MIA: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:49 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% MIA | FSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:50 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +4% FSU | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:06 | Miami converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:46 | Florida State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% FSU | FSU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 13:35 | Florida State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% FSU | FSU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 4:59 | Florida State fumbled and Miami recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% MIA | FSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 100% · Florida State 0%
- Final margin
- Miami by 6
- Luck in points
- 12.3 for Florida State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 18.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 60% · Florida State 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Florida State
More from Week 6 2025
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Syracuse at SMU SMU 31–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner