Syracuse at SMU, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Syracuse Orange	18
SMU Mustangs	31

October 4, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Closing line: SMU −17.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +8 SMU about even · −8 Syracuse

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Syracuse wins 1, SMU wins 9.

1 SYR 26 SMU 21
2 SYR 7 SMU 10
3 SYR 23 SMU 30
4 SYR 17 SMU 27
5 SYR 20 SMU 34
6 SYR 13 SMU 30
7 SYR 7 SMU 28
8 SYR 23 SMU 48
9 SYR 7 SMU 38
10 SYR 0 SMU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Syracuse wins 8% of them, SMU 92%. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 13.

Actual: SMU by 13 494235282114707142128354249 ← Syracuse win by SMU win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Syracuse by 17+	0.5%
Syracuse by 9–16	2.1%
Syracuse by 1–8	4.8%
Level after regulation	0.4%
SMU by 1–8	15.4%
SMU by 9–16	17.0%
SMU by 17+	59.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +1% SMU

Fumble bounces +1% SMU

All luck +2% SMU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to SMU: the final margin was SMU by 13, without the luck SMU by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

S. Keltner, 26 yds made · 89% expected
T. Woody, 38 yds made · 76% expected
S. Keltner, 41 yds missed · 69% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Syracuse 5 for 55 yards, SMU 2 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q2 8:08	Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards	0% SMU +0.8 pts
Q2 6:04	Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards	0% SMU +1.0 pts
Q3 14:46	Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% SMU +1.8 pts
Q3 13:02	Offside on SMU, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap	0% SMU +0.3 pts
Q4 14:31	Holding on SMU, 50 yards	0% SYR +3.1 pts
Q4 12:43	Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards	0% SMU +1.7 pts
Q4 5:46	Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% SMU +0.8 pts

When it happened

SMU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

SMU 50% Syracuse Q1Q2Q3Q4 1245678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while SMU was ahead in it, below while Syracuse was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 14:22	SMU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected	+2% SYR	SMU: Punt
2	Q1 9:00	Syracuse converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected	+2% SYR	SYR: Turnover on downs
3	Q1 7:09	Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected	+2% SMU	SYR: Turnover on downs
4	Q1 6:39	Syracuse was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected	+4% SMU	SYR: Turnover
5	Q1 3:58	SMU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected	+2% SYR	SMU: Punt
6	Q1 1:36	Syracuse converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected	+3% SYR	SYR: Punt
7	Q2 12:58	SMU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+2% SMU	SMU: Touchdown
8	Q2 9:22	Syracuse was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected	+2% SMU	SYR: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Syracuse · SMU

More from Week 6 2025

Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
Miami at Florida State MIA 28–22 · replay 60% for the winner
Duke at California DUKE 45–21 · replay 80% for the winner
Clemson at North Carolina CLEM 38–10 · replay 87% for the winner
Boston College at Pittsburgh PITT 48–7 · replay 99% for the winner
Campbell at NC State NCSU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner

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