Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
UNLV at Wyoming, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Wyoming 31–17, but the replays lean toward Wyoming: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
UNLV won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:01 left): Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to UNLV.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 31 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 UNLV very lucky · −75 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 3, Wyoming wins 7.
- 1 UNLV 23 WYO 6
- 2 UNLV 12 WYO 3
- 3 UNLV 10 WYO 7
- 4 UNLV 14 WYO 17
- 5 UNLV 7 WYO 12
- 6 UNLV 6 WYO 14
- 7 UNLV 7 WYO 20
- 8 UNLV 0 WYO 17
- 9 UNLV 10 WYO 31
- 10 UNLV 9 WYO 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
UNLV won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for UNLV: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.11 | worse by 0.21 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.03 | better by 0.11 |
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | −0.01 | worse by 0.07 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.07 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 25% of them, Wyoming 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 3.0% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 26.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Villela, 36 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: UNLV 7 for 67 yards, Wyoming 5 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:52 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.4 pts |
| Q1 9:18 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:31 | Holding on Wyoming, 13 yards | 0% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:39 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | +1% WYO +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 9 yards | +1% WYO +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 15 yards | +2% WYO +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | False Start on UNLV, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% UNLV +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:23 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:01 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +12% UNLV +7.0 pts |
| Q3 3:48 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 14 yards | +5% UNLV +4.3 pts |
| Q4 6:20 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% WYO +1.9 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:54 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedUNLV fumbled and Wyoming recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WYO | WYO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 6:29 | Return touchdown by UNLVSpecial teams | +10% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:36 | R. Villela made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +3% WYO | UNLV: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:49 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedPass Interference on UNLV, 9 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:59 | Return touchdown by UNLVSpecial teams | +6% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:46 | UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedUNLV was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +3% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 4:01 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% UNLV | UNLV: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 3:48 | UNLV converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedUNLV was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedPersonal Foul on UNLV, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UNLV | UNLV: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 83% · Wyoming 17%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 14
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 5.9
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 25% · Wyoming 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
UNLV · 
Wyoming
More from Week 6 2025
- New Mexico at San José State SJSU 35–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Nevada at Fresno State FRES 20–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Colorado State at San Diego State SDSU 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner