Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Air Force at Navy, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Air Force 34–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Air Force had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Air Force.
Before kickoff Navy was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Air Force Falcons | 31 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Navy lucky · −26 Air Force
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Air Force wins 3, Navy wins 7.
- 1 AF 34 NAVY 17
- 2 AF 52 NAVY 45
- 3 AF 27 NAVY 24
- 4 AF 42 NAVY 45
- 5 AF 31 NAVY 37
- 6 AF 21 NAVY 31
- 7 AF 17 NAVY 31
- 8 AF 27 NAVY 45
- 9 AF 10 NAVY 34
- 10 AF 28 NAVY 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Air Force wins 26% of them, Navy 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Air Force by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Navy by 17+ | 29.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Kirkwood, 39 yds made · 71% expected
- J. Medina, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
- J. Medina, 24 yds made · 90% expected
- N. Kirkwood, 34 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Air Force 3 for 35 yards, Navy 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:41 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +2% AF +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:15 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:17 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:02 | Personal Foul on Air Force, 15 yards | +3% AF +2.5 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:31 | Pass Interference on Navy, 10 yards | +5% AF +2.2 pts |
| Q4 10:04 | Penalty on Air Force, 15 yards | +6% NAVY +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:51 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AF +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | Delay of Game on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:24 | J. Medina missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him | +5% NAVY | AF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:16 | Air Force converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% AF | AF: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 6:38 | Air Force converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% AF | AF: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 10:31 | Pass Interference on Navy, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 14:55 | Air Force converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 13:29 | Navy converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:04 | Penalty on Air Force, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% NAVY | NAVY: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 5:51 | Air Force converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% AF | AF: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Air Force 14% · Navy 86%
- Final margin
- Navy by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Air Force 26% · Navy 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Air Force · 
Navy
More from Week 6 2025
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Army at UAB ARMY 31–13 · replay 51% for the winner
- New Mexico at San José State SJSU 35–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Nevada at Fresno State FRES 20–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- UTSA at Temple TEM 27–21 · replay 76% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Colorado State at San Diego State SDSU 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Tulsa at Memphis MEM 45–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Charlotte at South Florida USF 54–26 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner