Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Nevada at Fresno State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Nevada 20–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Nevada had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Nevada.
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 13, worth 23 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 17 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Fresno State lucky · −27 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nevada wins 3, Fresno State wins 7.
- 1 NEV 24 FRES 7
- 2 NEV 31 FRES 23
- 3 NEV 20 FRES 17
- 4 NEV 21 FRES 24
- 5 NEV 21 FRES 27
- 6 NEV 7 FRES 17
- 7 NEV 10 FRES 24
- 8 NEV 21 FRES 38
- 9 NEV 15 FRES 38
- 10 NEV 24 FRES 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nevada wins 27% of them, Fresno State 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nevada by 17+ | 5.5% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 30.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. McFadden, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
- J. McFadden, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- D. Lynch, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- D. Lynch, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Nevada 1 for 10 yards, Fresno State 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:40 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | +2% FRES +1.3 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% NEV +5.1 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards | +1% NEV +3.2 pts |
| Q4 12:36 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +4% NEV +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:42 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +4% NEV +1.1 pts |
| Q4 8:42 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEV +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:37 | Nevada converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedNevada was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% NEV | NEV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:00 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% NEV | FRES: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 14:54 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% NEV | FRES: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:47 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedFresno State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedNevada fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:23 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +7% NEV | NEV: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 12:36 | Nevada converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFresno State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedHolding on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:48 | Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +8% FRES | NEV: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +23% FRES | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nevada 5% · Fresno State 95%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.6 for Nevada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 12.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Nevada 27% · Fresno State 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Nevada · 
Fresno State
More from Week 6 2025
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- New Mexico at San José State SJSU 35–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Colorado State at San Diego State SDSU 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner