Week 6 2025 · October 3, 2025
Colorado State at San Diego State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Colorado State 45–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Colorado State Rams | 24 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 San Diego State about even · −5 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado State wins 1, San Diego State wins 9.
- 1 CSU 24 SDSU 17
- 2 CSU 24 SDSU 28
- 3 CSU 35 SDSU 43
- 4 CSU 21 SDSU 34
- 5 CSU 13 SDSU 28
- 6 CSU 17 SDSU 35
- 7 CSU 20 SDSU 42
- 8 CSU 21 SDSU 47
- 9 CSU 3 SDSU 34
- 10 CSU 13 SDSU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado State wins 5% of them, San Diego State 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 69.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- I. Hankins, 30 yds made · 85% expected
- G. Plascencia, 53 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: Colorado State 1 for 5 yards, San Diego State 9 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:58 | Offside on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SDSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +6% CSU +3.4 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 9 yards | +2% CSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:06 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:58 | Penalty on San Diego State, 15 yards | +2% CSU +3.3 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | Penalty on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% CSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | 0% CSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:12 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% CSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:58 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% SDSU | CSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:36 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% SDSU | CSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:05 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:00 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:15 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 8:40 | San Diego State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +2% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 4:29 | Colorado State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado State 0% · San Diego State 100%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 21
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 19.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado State 5% · San Diego State 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Colorado State · 
San Diego State
More from Week 6 2025
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- New Mexico at San José State SJSU 35–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Nevada at Fresno State FRES 20–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner