Week 6 2025 · October 3, 2025
New Mexico at San José State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
San José State beat New Mexico 35–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff San José State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:43 left): Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to San José State.
Final
 New Mexico Lobos | 28 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 San José State lucky · −33 New Mexico
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico wins 3, San José State wins 7.
- 1 UNM 34 SJSU 17
- 2 UNM 37 SJSU 28
- 3 UNM 37 SJSU 34
- 4 UNM 42 SJSU 44
- 5 UNM 27 SJSU 31
- 6 UNM 35 SJSU 42
- 7 UNM 35 SJSU 45
- 8 UNM 35 SJSU 49
- 9 UNM 14 SJSU 34
- 10 UNM 17 SJSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico wins 33% of them, San José State 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San José State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico by 17+ | 5.1% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| San José State by 17+ | 23.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Drzewiecki, 25 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 31 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: New Mexico 5 for 43 yards, San José State 8 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:18 | Penalty on San José State, 10 yards | +1% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:15 | Roughing the Kicker on New Mexico, 15 yards | +4% UNM +2.5 pts |
| Q2 5:19 | Penalty on San José State, 9 yards | +2% UNM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Personal Foul on San José State, 15 yards | +1% UNM +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:43 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% SJSU +6.3 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards | +2% UNM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Face Mask on San José State, 15 yards | +2% UNM +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Holding on New Mexico, 8 yards | +1% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:53 | Holding on New Mexico, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SJSU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 8:18 | Holding on San José State, 9 yards | +3% UNM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:48 | Running Into the Kicker on New Mexico, 5 yards | +1% SJSU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:13 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 6:15 | San José State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedRoughing the Kicker on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SJSU | SJSU: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 1:43 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 13:53 | Holding on New Mexico, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:18 | Holding on San José State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UNM | UNM: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 7:31 | San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:30 | San José State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% SJSU | SJSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:22 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% UNM | UNM: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico 1% · San José State 99%
- Final margin
- San José State by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for New Mexico
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San José State by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico 33% · San José State 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
New Mexico · 
San José State
More from Week 6 2025
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Nevada at Fresno State FRES 20–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Colorado State at San Diego State SDSU 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner