Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Colorado at TCU, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
TCU beat Colorado 35–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, TCU wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to TCU.
TCU won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Colorado it would win 80% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%. The numbers
Before kickoff TCU was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:11 left): Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to Colorado.
Final
 Colorado Buffaloes | 21 |
|---|---|
 TCU Horned Frogs | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 TCU lucky · −59 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado wins 6, TCU wins 4.
- 1 COLO 33 TCU 7
- 2 COLO 27 TCU 9
- 3 COLO 20 TCU 6
- 4 COLO 31 TCU 21
- 5 COLO 24 TCU 17
- 6 COLO 24 TCU 21
- 7 COLO 24 TCU 27
- 8 COLO 3 TCU 9
- 9 COLO 5 TCU 16
- 10 COLO 14 TCU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
TCU won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Colorado it would win 80% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for TCU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.10 | better by 0.05 |
| Colorado defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.07 | worse by 0.07 |
| TCU offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.17 | worse by 0.03 |
| TCU defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.06 | worse by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado wins 59% of them, TCU 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado by 17+ | 16.4% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| TCU by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Colorado 5 for 33 yards, TCU 7 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:12 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +3% COLO +2.5 pts |
| Q2 13:08 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:06 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 3 yards | +3% TCU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +4% TCU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:28 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TCU +2.2 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +8% COLO +3.0 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TCU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards | 0% TCU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:58 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TCU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 10:54 | Illegal Formation on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:11 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +25% COLO +4.5 pts |
| Q4 4:19 | False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TCU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
TCU’s chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 12:28 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TCU | TCU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 11:10 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:10 | TCU converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:04 | TCU converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TCU | TCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:29 | Colorado converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:03 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% COLO | TCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 7:11 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +25% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:56 | Colorado fumbled and TCU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% TCU | COLO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado 0% · TCU 100%
- Final margin
- TCU by 14
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Colorado
- Luck-adjusted margin
- TCU by 21.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado 59% · TCU 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Colorado · 
TCU
More from Week 6 2025
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Kansas State at Baylor BAY 35–34 · replay 67% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Iowa State at Cincinnati CIN 38–30 · replay 91% for the winner
- West Virginia at BYU BYU 38–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Arizona ARIZ 41–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner