luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Boise State at Notre Dame, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Notre Dame beat Boise State 28–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 92% favorite.

Final

Boise State Broncos 7
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28

October 4, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium · Closing line: Notre Dame −21.5

Luck index +8 Notre Dame about even · −8 Boise State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Boise State wins 1, Notre Dame wins 9.

  1. 1 BOIS 26 ND 20
  2. 2 BOIS 21 ND 24
  3. 3 BOIS 10 ND 17
  4. 4 BOIS 10 ND 20
  5. 5 BOIS 14 ND 28
  6. 6 BOIS 0 ND 17
  7. 7 BOIS 10 ND 31
  8. 8 BOIS 17 ND 41
  9. 9 BOIS 13 ND 42
  10. 10 BOIS 6 ND 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Boise State wins 8% of them, Notre Dame 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Boise State by 17+0.6%
Boise State by 9–161.9%
Boise State by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Notre Dame by 1–814.8%
Notre Dame by 9–1618.9%
Notre Dame by 17+58.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to Boise State: the final margin was Notre Dame by 21, without the luck Notre Dame by 24.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Boise State 12 for 97 yards, Notre Dame 11 for 97 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:58 False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +1.6 pts
Q1 9:57 Illegal Snap on Boise State, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% ND +0.2 pts
Q1 8:47 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards +2% BOIS +2.5 pts
Q1 8:41 Holding on Boise State, 7 yards +1% ND +1.4 pts
Q1 7:49 Offside on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +0.7 pts
Q1 2:02 Holding on Boise State, 10 yards +1% ND +1.5 pts
Q1 1:51 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ND +0.6 pts
Q2 14:17 False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +0.6 pts
Q2 5:48 Unnecessary Roughness on Notre Dame, 10 yards +1% BOIS +1.3 pts
Q2 0:56 Holding on Boise State, 4 yards +2% ND +1.5 pts
Q2 0:08 Illegal Block on Notre Dame, 0 yards 0% BOIS 0.0 pts
Q2 0:08 Illegal Block on Notre Dame, 10 yards +1% BOIS +0.6 pts
Q3 12:09 Personal Foul on Boise State, 15 yards +2% ND +1.6 pts
Q3 1:40 Personal Foul on Boise State, 15 yards 0% ND +0.9 pts
Q3 0:59 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards 0% BOIS +1.1 pts
Q3 0:53 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% BOIS +2.9 pts
Q4 11:43 Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards +1% ND +1.8 pts
Q4 11:24 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ND +0.5 pts
Q4 10:20 Roughing the Passer on Notre Dame, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% BOIS +5.7 pts
Q4 6:55 Holding on Boise State, 10 yards 0% ND +1.6 pts
Q4 5:48 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 12 yards 0% BOIS +0.7 pts
Q4 5:21 Illegal Substitution on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ND +0.4 pts
Q4 3:56 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ND +0.5 pts

When it happened

Notre Dame’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Notre Dame was ahead in it, below while Boise State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:48 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% ND ND: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:07 Notre Dame was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +2% BOIS ND: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:47 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% BOIS BOIS: Punt
4 Q2 6:26 Boise State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:56 Holding on Boise State, 4 yardsJudgment calls +2% ND ND: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:55 Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% BOIS BOIS: Punt
7 Q3 12:09 Personal Foul on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% ND ND: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:09 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% ND ND: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Boise State 0% · Notre Dame 100%

Final margin
Notre Dame by 21
Luck in points
3.3 for Boise State
Luck-adjusted margin
Notre Dame by 24.3
Replay with same day's form
Boise State 8% · Notre Dame 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Boise State · Notre Dame

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