Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Florida International at UConn, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
UConn beat Florida International 51–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UConn wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UConn was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Florida International Panthers | 10 |
|---|---|
 UConn Huskies | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 UConn about even · −3 Florida International
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 0, UConn wins 10.
- 1 FIU 30 CONN 35
- 2 FIU 23 CONN 34
- 3 FIU 20 CONN 35
- 4 FIU 7 CONN 26
- 5 FIU 19 CONN 42
- 6 FIU 8 CONN 34
- 7 FIU 21 CONN 51
- 8 FIU 16 CONN 49
- 9 FIU 5 CONN 44
- 10 FIU 14 CONN 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 3% of them, UConn 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| UConn by 17+ | 81.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Freeman, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- N. Grant, 26 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Freeman, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Freeman, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Florida International 4 for 45 yards, UConn 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:51 | False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:15 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +1% FIU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:02 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +1% FIU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:00 | Roughing the Passer on Florida International, 15 yards | +1% CONN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:40 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% CONN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:39 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% CONN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | 0% CONN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Pass Interference on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% CONN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Pass Interference on UConn, 3 yards | 0% FIU +4.1 pts |
When it happened
UConn’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:33 | UConn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:58 | UConn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:00 | Florida International fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% FIU | FIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:06 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% CONN | FIU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:02 | Holding on UConn, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 10:06 | Florida International converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:46 | UConn fumbled and Florida International recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% FIU | CONN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:25 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% CONN | FIU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 0% · UConn 100%
- Final margin
- UConn by 41
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UConn by 44.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 3% · UConn 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Florida International · 
UConn
More from Week 6 2025
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- Sam Houston at New Mexico State NMSU 37–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Boise State at Notre Dame ND 28–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech WAKE 30–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner