Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Tulsa at Memphis, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat Tulsa 45–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 7 |
|---|---|
 Memphis Tigers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Memphis about even · −3 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulsa wins 0, Memphis wins 10.
- 1 TLSA 3 MEM 10
- 2 TLSA 21 MEM 34
- 3 TLSA 20 MEM 37
- 4 TLSA 21 MEM 42
- 5 TLSA 17 MEM 41
- 6 TLSA 24 MEM 52
- 7 TLSA 10 MEM 41
- 8 TLSA 17 MEM 52
- 9 TLSA 17 MEM 59
- 10 TLSA 7 MEM 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulsa wins 3% of them, Memphis 97%. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulsa by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Memphis by 17+ | 82.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Morgan, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
- G. Spetic, 50 yds made · 54% expected
Penalties: Tulsa 1 for 5 yards, Memphis 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 14:53 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:57 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% TLSA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | 0% TLSA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 13:08 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Memphis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:36 | Memphis converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:33 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected | +1% TLSA | MEM: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 1:13 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% TLSA | TLSA: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:55 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% MEM | TLSA: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 14:19 | S. Morgan missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +2% MEM | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:39 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +1% MEM | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:00 | Tulsa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +1% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 5:28 | Memphis fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% MEM | MEM: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulsa 0% · Memphis 100%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 38
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 31.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulsa 3% · Memphis 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Tulsa · 
Memphis
More from Week 6 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Army at UAB ARMY 31–13 · replay 51% for the winner
- Air Force at Navy NAVY 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- UTSA at Temple TEM 27–21 · replay 76% for the winner
- Charlotte at South Florida USF 54–26 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner