luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Army at UAB, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Army beat UAB 31–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Army wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Army.

Before kickoff Army was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:07 left): J. Delange missed a 30-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to Army.

Final

Army Black Knights 31
UAB Blazers 13

October 4, 2025 · Protective Stadium · Closing line: Army −6.5

Luck index +49 Army lucky · −49 UAB

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Army wins 5, UAB wins 5.

  1. 1 ARMY 26 UAB 5
  2. 2 ARMY 17 UAB 3
  3. 3 ARMY 10 UAB 0
  4. 4 ARMY 20 UAB 13
  5. 5 ARMY 17 UAB 14
  6. 6 ARMY 14 UAB 17
  7. 7 ARMY 13 UAB 17
  8. 8 ARMY 7 UAB 16
  9. 9 ARMY 3 UAB 14
  10. 10 ARMY 0 UAB 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Army wins 51% of them, UAB 49%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Army by 17+10.7%
Army by 9–1618.0%
Army by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation2.7%
UAB by 1–827.8%
UAB by 9–1612.2%
UAB by 17+7.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to Army: the final margin was Army by 18, without the luck Army by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Delange, 44 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • D. Jones, 45 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Delange, 30 yds missed · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Army 7 for 100 yards, UAB 11 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:15 False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UAB +0.4 pts
Q2 13:03 Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARMY +2.1 pts
Q2 12:13 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.3 pts
Q2 9:18 False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UAB +0.5 pts
Q2 8:49 Intentional Grounding on Army, 50 yards +2% UAB +1.4 pts
Q2 6:54 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.5 pts
Q2 6:29 Holding on UAB, 8 yards +1% ARMY +0.6 pts
Q2 4:48 Personal Foul on Army, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% UAB +2.4 pts
Q2 1:48 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +2% ARMY +0.9 pts
Q2 0:44 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +1% ARMY +0.4 pts
Q2 0:02 Unnecessary Roughness on Army, 15 yards +2% ARMY +0.8 pts
Q3 6:32 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.4 pts
Q3 2:21 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.8 pts
Q4 12:40 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.8 pts
Q4 10:49 Illegal Snap on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.6 pts
Q4 7:46 False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +1.1 pts
Q4 6:52 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARMY +0.5 pts
Q4 0:54 Illegal Substitution on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARMY +0.3 pts

When it happened

UAB’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UAB was ahead in it, below while Army was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:21 J. Delange had a 44-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him +5% ARMY UAB: Punt
2 Q2 4:48 Personal Foul on Army, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% UAB UAB: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:53 UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% UAB UAB: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:39 Army was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% UAB ARMY: Punt
5 Q3 11:24 UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% UAB UAB: Missed field goal
6 Q3 10:12 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% ARMY UAB: Missed field goal
7 Q3 10:07 J. Delange missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +9% ARMY UAB: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 2:48 Army was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +4% UAB ARMY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Army 95% · UAB 5%

Final margin
Army by 18
Luck in points
6.7 for Army
Luck-adjusted margin
Army by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Army 51% · UAB 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Army · UAB

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