2025 college football season · final

Every college football upset of 2025, and which were deserved

224 upsets in 2025: games the betting underdog won. 109 were deserved on the day, 75 were luck. The biggest: UCLA beat Penn State 42–37 as 24.5-point underdogs, a coin flip on the day.

The luckiest of them: Sam Houston beat Oregon State 21–17 and wins only 2% of replays with the way both teams played. The game, replayed

Biggest upset first, by the closing line. Before kickoff: the line as a win probability for the winner. Replay: how often the winner wins when the game is replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams played (our postgame win expectancy). Deserved: 60% or more.

#	Winner	Game	When	Before kickoff	Replay	Verdict
1	UCLA	42–37 vs Penn State	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	6%	59%	Coin flip
2	UAB	31–24 vs Memphis	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	6%	64%	Deserved
3	Long Island University	28–23 @ Eastern Michigan	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	8%	78%	Deserved
4	Sam Houston	21–17 @ Oregon State	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	9%	2%	Lucky
5	Northwestern	22–21 @ Penn State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	9%	19%	Lucky
6	South Florida	18–16 @ Florida	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	12%	56%	Coin flip
7	California	29–26 @ Louisville	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	12%	74%	Deserved
8	Syracuse	34–21 @ Clemson	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	13%	34%	Lucky
9	Fresno State	30–7 @ Boise State	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	13%	96%	Deserved
10	Stanford	20–13 vs Florida State	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	13%	54%	Coin flip
11	Austin Peay	34–14 @ Middle Tennessee	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	14%	92%	Deserved
12	Army	24–21 @ Kansas State	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	14%	19%	Lucky
13	Bryant	27–26 @ Massachusetts	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	14%	10%	Lucky
14	New Mexico	35–10 @ UCLA	Week 3 · Sep 12, 2025	16%	85%	Deserved
15	Tarleton State	30–27 @ Army	Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025	17%	13%	Lucky
16	Rice	14–12 @ Louisiana	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	17%	75%	Deserved
17	Coastal Carolina	38–20 @ South Alabama	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	17%	74%	Deserved
18	Marshall	48–24 vs Old Dominion	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	17%	90%	Deserved
19	Stanford	30–20 vs Boston College	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	18%	71%	Deserved
20	San Diego State	34–0 vs California	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	18%	92%	Deserved
21	Arkansas State	31–30 vs Texas State	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	18%	50%	Coin flip
22	Ball State	20–14 vs Ohio	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	18%	38%	Lucky
23	West Virginia	45–35 @ Houston	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	19%	42%	Coin flip
24	Florida State	31–17 vs Alabama	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	19%	92%	Deserved
25	Western Michigan	14–13 vs Toledo	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	19%	71%	Deserved
26	California	38–35 vs SMU	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	19%	18%	Lucky
27	East Carolina	23–17 vs Pittsburgh	Go Bowling Military Bowl · Dec 27, 2025	21%	19%	Lucky
28	Central Michigan	16–14 @ San José State	Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025	23%	65%	Deserved
29	Kentucky	10–3 @ Auburn	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	23%	71%	Deserved
30	Sam Houston	26–23 vs Delaware	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	23%	46%	Coin flip
31	Maryland	27–10 @ Wisconsin	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	25%	80%	Deserved
32	Pittsburgh	34–31 @ Florida State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	25%	66%	Deserved
33	Bowling Green	28–23 vs Toledo	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	25%	21%	Lucky
34	Louisville	24–21 @ Miami	Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025	25%	24%	Lucky
35	Coastal Carolina	45–37 @ App State	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	25%	79%	Deserved
36	Rice	37–34 vs UConn	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	25%	66%	Deserved
37	Wisconsin	13–10 vs Washington	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	25%	23%	Lucky
38	Georgia Southern	24–19 @ Marshall	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	25%	31%	Lucky
39	Tulsa	19–12 @ Oklahoma State	Week 4 · Sep 19, 2025	26%	44%	Coin flip
40	Virginia Tech	23–21 @ NC State	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	26%	45%	Coin flip
41	Florida International	25–6 @ Western Kentucky	Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025	26%	33%	Lucky
42	Akron	24–16 @ Buffalo	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	26%	30%	Lucky
43	Tulsa	26–25 @ Army	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	26%	55%	Coin flip
44	Nevada	55–10 vs San José State	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	26%	99%	Deserved
45	Navy	41–38 vs South Florida	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	27%	38%	Lucky
46	Middle Tennessee	14–13 @ Nevada	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	27%	21%	Lucky
47	UAB	31–24 @ Tulsa	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	27%	33%	Lucky
48	Arkansas State	15–14 @ South Alabama	Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025	29%	66%	Deserved
49	Army	27–24 @ UTSA	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	29%	24%	Lucky
50	South Florida	34–7 vs Boise State	Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025	29%	87%	Deserved
51	Delaware	44–41 vs UConn	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	29%	50%	Coin flip
52	SMU	26–20 vs Miami	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	29%	32%	Lucky
53	Wisconsin	27–10 vs Illinois	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	29%	67%	Deserved
54	Missouri State	21–20 @ Marshall	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	31%	76%	Deserved
55	Troy	48–41 @ Texas State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	31%	31%	Lucky
56	Arizona State	26–22 vs Texas Tech	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	31%	38%	Lucky
57	Kent State	24–21 vs Bowling Green	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	31%	38%	Lucky
58	Arizona State	24–19 @ Iowa State	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	31%	62%	Deserved
59	Arkansas State	23–10 @ Troy	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	31%	81%	Deserved
60	UConn	37–34 vs Duke	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	31%	47%	Coin flip
61	Iowa State	20–17 @ TCU	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	31%	22%	Lucky
62	Missouri State	21–17 @ Liberty	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	31%	76%	Deserved
63	Kent State	42–35 @ Akron	Week 12 · Nov 11, 2025	31%	43%	Coin flip
64	Miami	24–14 vs Ohio State	CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl · Dec 31, 2025	31%	30%	Lucky
65	Hawai'i	44–35 @ Air Force	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	32%	5%	Lucky
66	UCLA	38–13 @ Michigan State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	32%	96%	Deserved
67	Indiana	30–20 @ Oregon	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	32%	55%	Coin flip
68	Houston	24–16 @ Arizona State	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	32%	54%	Coin flip
69	Wake Forest	16–9 @ Virginia	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	32%	22%	Lucky
70	Troy	28–18 @ Southern Miss	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	32%	63%	Deserved
71	West Virginia	31–24 vs Pittsburgh	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	33%	92%	Deserved
72	Memphis	32–31 vs Arkansas	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	33%	30%	Lucky
73	Virginia	46–38 vs Florida State	Week 5 · Sep 26, 2025	33%	78%	Deserved
74	Akron	28–22 vs Central Michigan	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	33%	76%	Deserved
75	Minnesota	24–6 vs Nebraska	Week 8 · Oct 17, 2025	33%	91%	Deserved
76	Coastal Carolina	44–27 vs Marshall	Week 10 · Oct 30, 2025	33%	80%	Deserved
77	NC State	21–11 vs Florida State	Week 13 · Nov 21, 2025	33%	18%	Lucky
78	Jacksonville State	34–24 vs Liberty	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	34%	60%	Coin flip
79	Texas A&M	41–40 @ Notre Dame	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	34%	37%	Lucky
80	Illinois	34–32 vs USC	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	34%	76%	Deserved
81	Virginia	30–27 @ Louisville	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	34%	19%	Lucky
82	Temple	27–21 vs UTSA	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	34%	76%	Deserved
83	Hawai'i	38–6 vs San Diego State	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	34%	99%	Deserved
84	Oklahoma	23–21 @ Alabama	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	34%	12%	Lucky
85	Ohio	17–10 vs UNLV	Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · Dec 23, 2025	34%	80%	Deserved
86	Bowling Green	23–13 vs Liberty	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	35%	33%	Lucky
87	California	28–24 @ Boston College	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	35%	28%	Lucky
88	UTSA	48–26 vs Tulane	Week 10 · Oct 30, 2025	35%	81%	Deserved
89	Air Force	26–16 @ San José State	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	35%	5%	Lucky
90	Nevada	13–7 @ Wyoming	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	35%	85%	Deserved
91	Ole Miss	39–34 vs Georgia	CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl · Jan 1, 2026	35%	71%	Deserved
92	Mississippi State	24–20 vs Arizona State	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	36%	47%	Coin flip
93	Old Dominion	45–26 @ Virginia Tech	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	36%	88%	Deserved
94	UL Monroe	31–25 @ UTEP	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	36%	84%	Deserved
95	Troy	21–17 @ Buffalo	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	36%	30%	Lucky
96	Cincinnati	37–34 @ Kansas	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	36%	30%	Lucky
97	Colorado State	49–21 vs Fresno State	Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025	36%	81%	Deserved
98	Western Kentucky	28–27 @ Louisiana Tech	Week 9 · Oct 21, 2025	36%	47%	Coin flip
99	Ole Miss	34–26 @ Oklahoma	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	36%	38%	Lucky
100	Wake Forest	13–12 vs SMU	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	36%	70%	Deserved
101	Mississippi State	38–35 @ Arkansas	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	36%	23%	Lucky
102	Delaware	25–24 vs Louisiana Tech	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	36%	25%	Lucky
103	Virginia	34–17 @ Duke	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	36%	96%	Deserved
104	Arizona	30–24 @ Cincinnati	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	36%	70%	Deserved
105	Texas State	43–36 @ UTSA	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	39%	47%	Coin flip
106	Kennesaw State	28–21 vs Arkansas State	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	39%	88%	Deserved
107	Washington State	20–3 @ Colorado State	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	39%	70%	Deserved
108	Florida	29–21 vs Texas	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	39%	86%	Deserved
109	Wake Forest	30–23 @ Virginia Tech	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	39%	48%	Coin flip
110	Florida Atlantic	27–21 @ Rice	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	39%	38%	Lucky
111	Kennesaw State	35–7 vs Louisiana Tech	Week 7 · Oct 9, 2025	39%	92%	Deserved
112	NC State	48–36 vs Georgia Tech	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	39%	35%	Lucky
113	Georgia Southern	25–23 @ App State	Week 11 · Nov 6, 2025	39%	82%	Deserved
114	Kentucky	38–7 vs Florida	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	39%	99%	Deserved
115	Stanford	31–10 vs California	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	39%	96%	Deserved
116	Kent State	35–31 @ Northern Illinois	Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025	39%	56%	Coin flip
117	TCU	30–27 vs USC	Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 30, 2025	39%	34%	Lucky
118	Utah State	49–30 vs Air Force	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	40%	100%	Deserved
119	BYU	24–21 vs Utah	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	40%	43%	Coin flip
120	App State	26–24 vs Marshall	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	40%	13%	Lucky
121	Delaware	38–16 @ Florida International	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	40%	85%	Deserved
122	Duke	46–45 @ Clemson	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	40%	22%	Lucky
123	New Mexico State	34–31 @ UTEP	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	40%	53%	Coin flip
124	Navy	28–17 @ Memphis	Week 14 · Nov 27, 2025	40%	42%	Coin flip
125	Old Dominion	24–10 vs South Florida	StaffDNA Cure Bowl · Dec 17, 2025	40%	63%	Deserved
126	Virginia	13–7 vs Missouri	TaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Dec 27, 2025	40%	22%	Lucky
127	Iowa State	24–21 vs Kansas State	Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025	41%	31%	Lucky
128	LSU	17–10 @ Clemson	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	41%	59%	Coin flip
129	Ohio	17–10 vs West Virginia	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	41%	94%	Deserved
130	New Mexico State	21–14 vs Tulsa	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	41%	24%	Lucky
131	Texas Tech	34–10 @ Utah	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	41%	87%	Deserved
132	Oregon	30–24 @ Penn State	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	41%	39%	Lucky
133	SMU	35–24 @ Clemson	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	41%	65%	Deserved
134	Georgia Tech	27–18 @ Duke	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	41%	62%	Deserved
135	Kansas State	42–17 @ Kansas	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	41%	97%	Deserved
136	Memphis	34–31 vs South Florida	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	41%	28%	Lucky
137	Oregon State	10–7 vs Washington State	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	41%	27%	Lucky
138	New Mexico	40–35 @ UNLV	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	41%	70%	Deserved
139	Louisiana	31–22 @ South Alabama	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	41%	66%	Deserved
140	Louisiana	42–39 vs Texas State	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	41%	14%	Lucky
141	Jacksonville State	35–26 vs Kennesaw State	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	41%	64%	Deserved
142	Duke	27–20 vs Virginia	Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025	41%	14%	Lucky
143	Indiana	13–10 vs Ohio State	Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025	41%	68%	Deserved
144	California	27–14 vs Minnesota	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	42%	72%	Deserved
145	Georgia Tech	24–21 vs Clemson	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	42%	33%	Lucky
146	Southern Miss	38–22 vs App State	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	42%	92%	Deserved
147	Colorado	24–17 vs Iowa State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	42%	44%	Coin flip
148	Kansas State	41–28 vs TCU	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	42%	31%	Lucky
149	Coastal Carolina	23–8 vs UL Monroe	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	42%	31%	Lucky
150	Jacksonville State	38–25 vs Delaware	Week 8 · Oct 15, 2025	42%	79%	Deserved
151	Marshall	40–37 vs Texas State	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	42%	71%	Deserved
152	Illinois	30–28 vs Tennessee	Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl · Dec 30, 2025	42%	36%	Lucky
153	California	34–15 @ Oregon State	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	42%	39%	Lucky
154	Vanderbilt	31–7 @ South Carolina	Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025	42%	67%	Deserved
155	Arizona State	27–24 @ Baylor	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	42%	39%	Lucky
156	Central Michigan	27–6 @ Bowling Green	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	42%	70%	Deserved
157	Oklahoma	33–27 @ Tennessee	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	42%	17%	Lucky
158	Tulane	38–32 @ Memphis	Week 11 · Nov 7, 2025	42%	74%	Deserved
159	Texas State	41–14 @ Southern Miss	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	42%	97%	Deserved
160	Middle Tennessee	31–24 @ New Mexico State	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	42%	32%	Lucky
161	Miami	10–3 @ Texas A&M	CFP first round · Dec 20, 2025	42%	42%	Coin flip
162	Western Kentucky	27–16 vs Southern Miss	New Orleans Bowl · Dec 23, 2025	42%	51%	Coin flip
163	Iowa	34–27 vs Vanderbilt	ReliaQuest Bowl · Dec 31, 2025	42%	47%	Coin flip
164	Wake Forest	43–29 vs Mississippi State	Duke's Mayo Bowl · Jan 2, 2026	42%	80%	Deserved
165	Duke	45–17 vs Elon	Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025	44%	99%	Deserved
166	Oklahoma State	27–7 vs UT Martin	Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025	44%	81%	Deserved
167	San Diego State	42–0 vs Stony Brook	Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025	44%	100%	Deserved
168	Texas Tech	67–7 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025	44%	100%	Deserved
169	Miami	27–24 vs Notre Dame	Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025	44%	70%	Deserved
170	Vanderbilt	44–20 @ Virginia Tech	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	44%	100%	Deserved
171	Minnesota	66–0 vs Northwestern State	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	44%	100%	Deserved
172	UNLV	30–23 vs UCLA	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	44%	64%	Deserved
173	Baylor	48–45 @ SMU	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	44%	27%	Lucky
174	Eastern Michigan	34–31 vs Louisiana	Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025	44%	42%	Coin flip
175	Alabama	24–21 @ Georgia	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	44%	54%	Coin flip
176	Louisiana	54–51 vs Marshall	Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025	44%	29%	Lucky
177	New Mexico State	37–10 vs Sam Houston	Week 6 · Oct 2, 2025	44%	83%	Deserved
178	Western Kentucky	27–24 @ Delaware	Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025	44%	23%	Lucky
179	Troy	31–24 vs South Alabama	Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025	44%	86%	Deserved
180	South Florida	63–36 @ North Texas	Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025	44%	93%	Deserved
181	Hawai'i	31–19 @ Colorado State	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	44%	94%	Deserved
182	Ball State	42–28 vs Akron	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	44%	51%	Coin flip
183	Auburn	33–24 @ Arkansas	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	44%	30%	Lucky
184	Rutgers	27–24 @ Purdue	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	44%	48%	Coin flip
185	BYU	41–27 @ Iowa State	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	44%	26%	Lucky
186	Buffalo	28–3 @ Bowling Green	Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025	44%	99%	Deserved
187	Florida International	34–27 vs Liberty	Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025	44%	65%	Deserved
188	Akron	19–16 @ Bowling Green	Week 13 · Nov 18, 2025	44%	64%	Deserved
189	Louisiana	34–30 @ Arkansas State	Week 13 · Nov 20, 2025	44%	16%	Lucky
190	Pittsburgh	42–28 @ Georgia Tech	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	44%	80%	Deserved
191	South Alabama	42–35 vs Southern Miss	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	44%	71%	Deserved
192	Texas	27–17 vs Texas A&M	Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025	44%	31%	Lucky
193	Clemson	28–14 @ South Carolina	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	44%	47%	Coin flip
194	Vanderbilt	45–24 @ Tennessee	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	44%	95%	Deserved
195	Minnesota	17–7 vs Wisconsin	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	44%	38%	Lucky
196	Houston	31–24 @ Baylor	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	44%	52%	Coin flip
197	Louisiana Tech	42–30 @ Missouri State	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	44%	46%	Coin flip
198	Penn State	22–10 vs Clemson	Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 27, 2025	44%	78%	Deserved
199	Arizona	23–17 vs Kansas State	Week 3 · Sep 12, 2025	46%	85%	Deserved
200	Hawai'i	44–26 vs Utah State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	46%	75%	Deserved
201	Wyoming	35–28 vs San José State	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	46%	87%	Deserved
202	Eastern Michigan	16–10 vs Northern Illinois	Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025	46%	47%	Coin flip
203	Houston	31–28 vs Arizona	Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025	46%	80%	Deserved
204	Washington State	28–7 vs Toledo	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	46%	92%	Deserved
205	Arkansas State	34–24 vs Georgia Southern	Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025	46%	86%	Deserved
206	Rice	24–17 vs UAB	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	46%	35%	Lucky
207	Louisiana Tech	34–28 vs Liberty	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	46%	45%	Coin flip
208	UTSA	58–24 vs East Carolina	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	46%	99%	Deserved
209	New Mexico	23–17 vs San Diego State	Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025	46%	26%	Lucky
210	Florida	40–21 vs Florida State	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	46%	78%	Deserved
211	Louisville	41–0 vs Kentucky	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	46%	98%	Deserved
212	Jacksonville State	37–34 vs Western Kentucky	Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025	46%	44%	Coin flip
213	Tulane	34–21 vs North Texas	Week 15 · Dec 5, 2025	46%	18%	Lucky
214	Delaware	20–13 vs Louisiana	68 Ventures Bowl · Dec 17, 2025	46%	74%	Deserved
215	Fresno State	36–27 @ Oregon State	Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025	46%	46%	Coin flip
216	North Carolina	27–10 @ Syracuse	Week 10 · Oct 31, 2025	46%	94%	Deserved
217	Houston	30–27 @ UCF	Week 11 · Nov 7, 2025	46%	92%	Deserved
218	Nebraska	28–21 @ UCLA	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	46%	83%	Deserved
219	Florida International	56–30 @ Middle Tennessee	Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025	46%	98%	Deserved
220	Clemson	20–19 @ Louisville	Week 12 · Nov 14, 2025	46%	19%	Lucky
221	Utah State	28–17 @ Fresno State	Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025	46%	30%	Lucky
222	Alabama	34–24 @ Oklahoma	CFP first round · Dec 19, 2025	46%	18%	Lucky
223	Washington State	34–21 vs Utah State	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 22, 2025	46%	96%	Deserved
224	Oregon	23–0 vs Texas Tech	CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl · Jan 1, 2026	46%	56%	Coin flip

2025 luck rankings · How the replays work