luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Houston at Baylor, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Houston beat Baylor 31–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Houston wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:17 left): Houston converted 4th & 7, worth 20 points of win probability to Houston.

Final

Houston Cougars 31
Baylor Bears 24

November 29, 2025 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −2.5

Luck index +48 Houston lucky · −48 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Houston wins 5, Baylor wins 5.

  1. 1 HOU 34 BAY 7
  2. 2 HOU 35 BAY 17
  3. 3 HOU 24 BAY 13
  4. 4 HOU 42 BAY 35
  5. 5 HOU 23 BAY 20
  6. 6 HOU 17 BAY 20
  7. 7 HOU 16 BAY 20
  8. 8 HOU 27 BAY 35
  9. 9 HOU 14 BAY 27
  10. 10 HOU 20 BAY 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Houston wins 52% of them, Baylor 48%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Houston by 17+13.6%
Houston by 9–1614.5%
Houston by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Baylor by 1–820.8%
Baylor by 9–1615.3%
Baylor by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to Houston: the final margin was Houston by 7, without the luck Houston by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Hawkins, 54 yds made · 47% expected
  • C. Hawkins, 34 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. Sanchez, 29 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Hawkins, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Houston 2 for 24 yards, Baylor 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:25 Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:13 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% HOU +3.5 pts
Q2 6:22 Holding on Houston, 10 yards +1% BAY +1.3 pts
Q2 5:54 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 7:45 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q3 6:56 Pass Interference on Baylor, 11 yards +3% HOU +1.5 pts
Q4 13:38 Pass Interference on Houston, 14 yards +3% BAY +1.8 pts
Q4 11:39 Pass Interference on Baylor, 8 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 2:43 Pass Interference on Baylor, 11 yards +17% HOU +3.0 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Houston was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:19 Houston converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:13 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q4 10:13 Houston was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +13% BAY HOU: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:53 Baylor converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +18% BAY BAY: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 6:37 Houston converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:57 Houston was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% BAY HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:17 Houston converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +20% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:43 Pass Interference on Baylor, 11 yardsJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Houston 83% · Baylor 17%

Final margin
Houston by 7
Luck in points
0.8 for Houston
Luck-adjusted margin
Houston by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Houston 52% · Baylor 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Houston · Baylor

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