Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Colorado at Kansas State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Colorado 24–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas State was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Colorado Buffaloes | 14 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Kansas State lucky · −31 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado wins 3, Kansas State wins 7.
- 1 COLO 38 KSU 23
- 2 COLO 17 KSU 10
- 3 COLO 10 KSU 7
- 4 COLO 17 KSU 20
- 5 COLO 13 KSU 17
- 6 COLO 0 KSU 7
- 7 COLO 17 KSU 27
- 8 COLO 7 KSU 20
- 9 COLO 14 KSU 31
- 10 COLO 3 KSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado wins 31% of them, Kansas State 69%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado by 17+ | 4.0% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 25.5% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 20.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Mata, 39 yds blocked · 76% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 35 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Colorado 0 for 0 yards, Kansas State 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:57 | False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:56 | Face Mask on Kansas State, 15 yards | +1% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:47 | Roughing the Passer on Kansas State, 15 yards | +2% COLO +2.2 pts |
| Q4 9:10 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards | +4% COLO +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:13 | Kansas State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 6:26 | Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +4% COLO | KSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:41 | Colorado converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +5% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:12 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +4% KSU | COLO: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 10:46 | Colorado was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% KSU | COLO: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 10:03 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% COLO | KSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:10 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:09 | Colorado converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado 14% · Kansas State 86%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado 31% · Kansas State 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Colorado · 
Kansas State
More from Week 14 2025
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Cincinnati at TCU TCU 45–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Houston at Baylor HOU 31–24 · replay 52% for the winner
- Arizona at Arizona State ARIZ 23–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- UCF at BYU BYU 41–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Iowa State at Oklahoma State ISU 20–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texas Tech at West Virginia TTU 49–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner