Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
UL Monroe at Louisiana, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat UL Monroe 30–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, UL Monroe wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Louisiana won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff Louisiana was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:20 left): Louisiana converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Final (OT)
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 27 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Louisiana very lucky · −87 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 9, Louisiana wins 1.
- 1 ULM 41 UL 3
- 2 ULM 45 UL 14
- 3 ULM 33 UL 7
- 4 ULM 31 UL 10
- 5 ULM 28 UL 10
- 6 ULM 35 UL 20
- 7 ULM 17 UL 6
- 8 ULM 34 UL 27
- 9 ULM 20 UL 17
- 10 ULM 17 UL 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Louisiana won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
55 points apart for Louisiana: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.04 | better by 0.17 |
| UL Monroe defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.07 | better by 0.11 |
| Louisiana offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.14 | worse by 0.18 |
| Louisiana defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.12 | worse by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UL Monroe wins 87% of them, Louisiana 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 47.4% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Louisiana by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Chambliss, 37 yds missed · 76% expected
- T. Sterner, 55 yds made · 46% expected
- T. Sterner, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- T. Sterner, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- T. Sterner, 19 yds made · 95% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UL Monroe 7 for 47 yards, Louisiana 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:59 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards | +3% ULM +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:48 | Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 8 yards | +3% UL +1.8 pts |
| Q1 4:58 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 4 yards | +2% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Roughing the Passer on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% UL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | Illegal Formation on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:01 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:52 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:18 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ULM +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UL +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana’s chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:10 | UL Monroe fumbled and Louisiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UL | ULM: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:56 | J. Chambliss missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him | +5% UL | ULM: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 11:12 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% UL | UL: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:49 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedLouisiana converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +9% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:32 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +13% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:20 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +13% UL | UL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:32 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +10% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 8 | OT | T. Sterner made a 19-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him | +5% UL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UL Monroe 75% · Louisiana 25%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UL Monroe by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UL Monroe 87% · Louisiana 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
UL Monroe · 
Louisiana
More from Week 14 2025
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