Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Texas A&M at Texas, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Texas A&M 27–17, but the replays lean toward Texas A&M: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Texas.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Texas A&M Aggies | 17 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Texas very lucky · −69 Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 7, Texas wins 3.
- 1 TA&M 32 TEX 0
- 2 TA&M 41 TEX 17
- 3 TA&M 27 TEX 7
- 4 TA&M 38 TEX 23
- 5 TA&M 25 TEX 14
- 6 TA&M 15 TEX 7
- 7 TA&M 6 TEX 3
- 8 TA&M 20 TEX 23
- 9 TA&M 13 TEX 21
- 10 TA&M 20 TEX 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas A&M wins 69% of them, Texas 31%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 29.2% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 17.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| Texas by 17+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Zirkel, 35 yds blocked · 80% expected
- M. Shipley, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Zirkel, 31 yds made · 84% expected
- M. Shipley, 46 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Texas A&M 8 for 62 yards, Texas 8 for 102 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:12 | Illegal Block on Texas, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas, 13 yards | +3% TA&M +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:13 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards | +2% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:27 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:54 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TA&M +1.7 pts |
| Q3 12:55 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 12 yards | +1% TEX +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:01 | Intentional Grounding on Texas, 9 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:18 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Delay of Game on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEX +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:21 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TEX +2.6 pts |
| Q4 9:57 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | +3% TA&M +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:07 | Illegal Block on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +3% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:23 | Offside on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas, 15 yards | 0% TEX +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas, 15 yards | 0% TA&M +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:07 | Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% TEX | TEX: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:46 | J. Zirkel had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him | +6% TEX | TA&M: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:24 | Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:51 | Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:48 | Texas A&M converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:23 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +5% TEX | TA&M: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:53 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% TEX | TA&M: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:21 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas A&M 58% · Texas 42%
- Final margin
- Texas by 10
- Luck in points
- 11.4 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas A&M 69% · Texas 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Texas A&M · 
Texas
More from Week 14 2025
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Alabama at Auburn ALA 27–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Mississippi State MISS 38–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Missouri at Arkansas MIZ 31–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee VAN 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- LSU at Oklahoma OU 17–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner