luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · November 25, 2025–November 29, 2025

Week 14 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

18 upsets in Week 14 2025. The biggest: California beat SMU 38–35 as 19% underdogs, and got lucky. 13 of 67 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Utah beat Kansas 31–21 in a game it wins 20% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 14 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 18 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
California 38–35 vs SMU 19% 18% Lucky
Georgia Southern 24–19 @ Marshall 25% 31% Lucky
UAB 31–24 @ Tulsa 27% 33% Lucky
Army 27–24 @ UTSA 29% 24% Lucky
Troy 28–18 @ Southern Miss 32% 63% Deserved
Kent State 35–31 @ Northern Illinois 39% 56% Coin flip
Navy 28–17 @ Memphis 40% 42% Coin flip
Middle Tennessee 31–24 @ New Mexico State 42% 32% Lucky
Texas 27–17 vs Texas A&M 44% 31% Lucky
Clemson 28–14 @ South Carolina 44% 47% Coin flip
Houston 31–24 @ Baylor 44% 52% Coin flip
Louisiana Tech 42–30 @ Missouri State 44% 46% Coin flip
Vanderbilt 45–24 @ Tennessee 44% 95% Deserved
Minnesota 17–7 vs Wisconsin 44% 38% Lucky
New Mexico 23–17 vs San Diego State 46% 26% Lucky
Louisville 41–0 vs Kentucky 46% 98% Deserved
Jacksonville State 37–34 vs Western Kentucky 46% 44% Coin flip
Florida 40–21 vs Florida State 46% 78% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 14 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Louisiana W 30–27 vs UL Monroe 13% +87
2 California W 38–35 vs SMU 18% +82
3 Utah W 31–21 @ Kansas 20% +80
4 Army W 27–24 @ UTSA 24% +76
5 New Mexico W 23–17 vs San Diego State 26% +74
6 Georgia Southern W 24–19 @ Marshall 31% +69
7 Texas W 27–17 vs Texas A&M 31% +69
8 Middle Tennessee W 31–24 @ New Mexico State 32% +68
9 Arkansas State W 30–29 @ App State 32% +68
10 UAB W 31–24 @ Tulsa 33% +67
11 Oregon W 26–14 @ Washington 34% +67
12 Georgia W 16–9 vs Georgia Tech 35% +65
13 Minnesota W 17–7 vs Wisconsin 38% +62
14 Alabama W 27–20 @ Auburn 41% +59
15 Navy W 28–17 @ Memphis 42% +58
16 Boise State W 25–24 @ Utah State 43% +57
17 Jacksonville State W 37–34 vs Western Kentucky 44% +56
18 Louisiana Tech W 42–30 @ Missouri State 46% +54
19 TCU W 45–23 vs Cincinnati 46% +54
20 Kennesaw State W 48–42 @ Liberty 47% +54
21 Clemson W 28–14 @ South Carolina 47% +53
22 Duke W 49–32 vs Wake Forest 47% +53
23 Western Michigan W 31–21 @ Eastern Michigan 48% +52
24 Penn State W 40–36 @ Rutgers 51% +49
25 Houston W 31–24 @ Baylor 52% +48
26 Michigan State W 38–28 vs Maryland 55% +45
27 Kent State W 35–31 @ Northern Illinois 56% +44
28 Ohio W 31–26 @ Buffalo 63% +37
29 Troy W 28–18 @ Southern Miss 63% +37
30 Arizona W 23–7 @ Arizona State 63% +37
31 Kansas State W 24–14 vs Colorado 69% +31
32 Toledo W 21–3 @ Central Michigan 70% +30
33 Air Force W 42–21 @ Colorado State 71% +29
34 Iowa W 40–16 @ Nebraska 76% +24
35 Ole Miss W 38–19 @ Mississippi State 78% +22
36 Florida W 40–21 vs Florida State 78% +22
37 Missouri W 31–17 @ Arkansas 84% +16
38 Fresno State W 41–14 @ San José State 84% +16
39 Illinois W 20–13 vs Northwestern 88% +12
40 Hawai'i W 27–7 vs Wyoming 89% +11
41 BYU W 41–21 vs UCF 90% +10
42 Iowa State W 20–13 @ Oklahoma State 92% +8
43 USC W 29–10 vs UCLA 93% +7
44 Vanderbilt W 45–24 @ Tennessee 95% +5
45 Notre Dame W 49–20 @ Stanford 95% +5
46 Ohio State W 27–9 @ Michigan 95% +5
47 Delaware W 61–31 vs UTEP 96% +4
48 Oklahoma W 17–13 vs LSU 96% +4
49 Texas Tech W 49–0 @ West Virginia 96% +4
50 Miami (OH) W 45–24 vs Ball State 96% +4
51 NC State W 42–19 vs North Carolina 97% +3
52 Old Dominion W 27–10 vs Georgia State 97% +3
53 Miami W 38–7 @ Pittsburgh 98% +2
54 Bowling Green W 45–14 @ Massachusetts 98% +2
55 Louisville W 41–0 vs Kentucky 98% +2
56 UNLV W 42–17 @ Nevada 98% +2
57 Virginia W 27–7 vs Virginia Tech 99% +2
58 Washington State W 32–8 vs Oregon State 99% +1
59 East Carolina W 42–3 @ Florida Atlantic 99% +1
60 Florida International W 56–16 vs Sam Houston 100% 0
61 Texas State W 49–26 vs South Alabama 100% 0
62 Indiana W 56–3 @ Purdue 100% 0
63 Boston College W 34–12 @ Syracuse 100% 0
64 James Madison W 59–10 @ Coastal Carolina 100% 0
65 North Texas W 52–25 vs Temple 100% 0
66 South Florida W 52–3 vs Rice 100% 0
67 Tulane W 27–0 vs Charlotte 100% 0
68 Temple L 25–52 @ North Texas 0% 0
69 Rice L 3–52 @ South Florida 0% 0
70 Charlotte L 0–27 @ Tulane 0% 0
71 Purdue L 3–56 vs Indiana 0% 0
72 Syracuse L 12–34 vs Boston College 0% 0
73 Coastal Carolina L 10–59 vs James Madison 0% 0
74 South Alabama L 26–49 @ Texas State 0% 0
75 Sam Houston L 16–56 vs Florida International 0% 0
76 Florida Atlantic L 3–42 vs East Carolina 1% −1
77 Oregon State L 8–32 @ Washington State 1% −1
78 Virginia Tech L 7–27 @ Virginia 2% −2
79 Nevada L 17–42 vs UNLV 2% −2
80 Massachusetts L 14–45 vs Bowling Green 2% −2
81 Kentucky L 0–41 @ Louisville 2% −2
82 Pittsburgh L 7–38 vs Miami 2% −2
83 Georgia State L 10–27 @ Old Dominion 3% −3
84 North Carolina L 19–42 @ NC State 3% −3
85 West Virginia L 0–49 vs Texas Tech 4% −4
86 Ball State L 24–45 @ Miami (OH) 4% −4
87 LSU L 13–17 @ Oklahoma 4% −4
88 UTEP L 31–61 @ Delaware 4% −4
89 Michigan L 9–27 vs Ohio State 5% −5
90 Stanford L 20–49 vs Notre Dame 5% −5
91 Tennessee L 24–45 vs Vanderbilt 5% −5
92 UCLA L 10–29 @ USC 7% −7
93 Oklahoma State L 13–20 vs Iowa State 8% −8
94 UCF L 21–41 @ BYU 10% −10
95 Wyoming L 7–27 @ Hawai'i 11% −11
96 Northwestern L 13–20 @ Illinois 12% −12
97 San José State L 14–41 vs Fresno State 16% −16
98 Arkansas L 17–31 vs Missouri 16% −16
99 Florida State L 21–40 @ Florida 22% −22
100 Mississippi State L 19–38 vs Ole Miss 22% −22
101 Nebraska L 16–40 vs Iowa 24% −24
102 Colorado State L 21–42 vs Air Force 29% −29
103 Central Michigan L 3–21 vs Toledo 30% −30
104 Colorado L 14–24 @ Kansas State 31% −31
105 Arizona State L 7–23 vs Arizona 37% −37
106 Southern Miss L 18–28 vs Troy 37% −37
107 Buffalo L 26–31 vs Ohio 37% −37
108 Northern Illinois L 31–35 vs Kent State 44% −44
109 Maryland L 28–38 vs Michigan State 45% −45
110 Baylor L 24–31 vs Houston 48% −48
111 Rutgers L 36–40 vs Penn State 49% −49
112 Eastern Michigan L 21–31 vs Western Michigan 52% −52
113 Wake Forest L 32–49 @ Duke 53% −53
114 South Carolina L 14–28 vs Clemson 53% −53
115 Liberty L 42–48 vs Kennesaw State 54% −54
116 Cincinnati L 23–45 @ TCU 54% −54
117 Missouri State L 30–42 vs Louisiana Tech 54% −54
118 Western Kentucky L 34–37 @ Jacksonville State 56% −56
119 Utah State L 24–25 vs Boise State 57% −57
120 Memphis L 17–28 vs Navy 58% −58
121 Auburn L 20–27 vs Alabama 59% −59
122 Wisconsin L 7–17 @ Minnesota 62% −62
123 Georgia Tech L 9–16 vs Georgia 65% −65
124 Washington L 14–26 vs Oregon 67% −67
125 Tulsa L 24–31 vs UAB 67% −67
126 App State L 29–30 vs Arkansas State 68% −68
127 New Mexico State L 24–31 vs Middle Tennessee 68% −68
128 Texas A&M L 17–27 @ Texas 69% −69
129 Marshall L 19–24 vs Georgia Southern 69% −69
130 San Diego State L 17–23 @ New Mexico 74% −74
131 UTSA L 24–27 vs Army 76% −76
132 Kansas L 21–31 vs Utah 80% −80
133 SMU L 35–38 @ California 82% −82
134 UL Monroe L 27–30 @ Louisiana 87% −87