luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Wake Forest at Duke, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Duke beat Wake Forest 49–32, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Duke wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff Duke was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:02 left): Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to Duke.

Final

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 32
Duke Blue Devils 49

November 29, 2025 · Wallace Wade Stadium · Closing line: Duke −2.5

Luck index +53 Duke lucky · −53 Wake Forest

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 5, Duke wins 5.

  1. 1 WAKE 49 DUKE 20
  2. 2 WAKE 26 DUKE 7
  3. 3 WAKE 38 DUKE 24
  4. 4 WAKE 31 DUKE 24
  5. 5 WAKE 20 DUKE 17
  6. 6 WAKE 35 DUKE 37
  7. 7 WAKE 35 DUKE 40
  8. 8 WAKE 21 DUKE 30
  9. 9 WAKE 16 DUKE 30
  10. 10 WAKE 7 DUKE 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wake Forest wins 53% of them, Duke 47%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wake Forest by 17+19.1%
Wake Forest by 9–1616.1%
Wake Forest by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation2.5%
Duke by 1–819.8%
Duke by 9–1612.8%
Duke by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to Duke: the final margin was Duke by 17, without the luck Duke by 16.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Wake Forest 8 for 97 yards, Duke 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:50 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards +5% DUKE +2.5 pts
Q1 12:36 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards +3% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q1 3:57 Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards +3% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q1 3:43 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 13 yards +1% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q2 8:42 Holding on Duke, 10 yards +2% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q2 0:54 Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.3 pts
Q3 14:55 Holding on Wake Forest, 8 yards, wiping out the play +6% DUKE +2.2 pts
Q3 6:21 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards +1% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q3 4:05 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 11 yards +1% DUKE +1.3 pts
Q4 4:45 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 15 yards +1% WAKE +1.6 pts
Q4 2:11 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DUKE +0.3 pts
Q4 0:14 Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +0.1 pts
Q4 0:11 Roughing the Passer on Duke, 15 yards 0% WAKE +0.5 pts

When it happened

Duke’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Duke was ahead in it, below while Wake Forest was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:56 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
3 Q2 5:22 Wake Forest fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WAKE WAKE: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 4:02 Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +8% DUKE WAKE: Touchdown
5 Q3 14:55 Holding on Wake Forest, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DUKE DUKE: Punt
6 Q3 8:40 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
7 Q4 10:08 Duke converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% DUKE DUKE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 7:25 Duke was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% WAKE DUKE: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wake Forest 1% · Duke 99%

Final margin
Duke by 17
Luck in points
0.6 for Duke
Luck-adjusted margin
Duke by 16.4
Replay with same day's form
Wake Forest 53% · Duke 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Wake Forest · Duke

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