North Carolina at NC State, Week 14 2025: who deserved it?

Final

North Carolina Tar Heels	19
NC State Wolfpack	42

November 29, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium · Closing line: NC State −7

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +3 NC State about even · −3 North Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina wins 0, NC State wins 10.

1 UNC 3 NCSU 6
2 UNC 21 NCSU 28
3 UNC 6 NCSU 17
4 UNC 23 NCSU 38
5 UNC 3 NCSU 21
6 UNC 10 NCSU 31
7 UNC 10 NCSU 34
8 UNC 3 NCSU 31
9 UNC 3 NCSU 35
10 UNC 7 NCSU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina wins 3% of them, NC State 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 23.

Actual: NC State by 23 494235282114707142128354249 ← North Carolina win by NC State win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
North Carolina by 17+	0.2%
North Carolina by 9–16	0.7%
North Carolina by 1–8	2.2%
Level after regulation	0.7%
NC State by 1–8	13.2%
NC State by 9–16	15.6%
NC State by 17+	67.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Pre-snap flags +2% NCSU

3rd & 4th downs +1% NCSU

Kicks +1% UNC

All luck +2% NCSU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 23, without the luck NC State by 22.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

R. Verhoff, 49 yds made · 58% expected
R. Verhoff, 29 yds made · 90% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Carolina 10 for 114 yards, NC State 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 10:22	Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards	+1% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q1 8:40	Face Mask on North Carolina, 15 yards	+2% NCSU +1.6 pts
Q1 3:17	Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards	+1% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q1 1:40	Roughing the Passer on NC State, 15 yards	+2% UNC +2.0 pts
Q1 1:03	Illegal Formation on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q2 5:53	Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q2 3:19	Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards	+1% UNC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:18	Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% NCSU +1.0 pts
Q3 10:35	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Carolina, 14 yards	+1% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q3 5:23	Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yards	+1% UNC +1.6 pts
Q3 2:03	Face Mask on North Carolina, 15 yards	+1% NCSU +1.6 pts
Q3 1:03	Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards	0% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q4 11:43	Holding on NC State, 10 yards	0% UNC +0.7 pts
Q4 1:13	Unnecessary Roughness on North Carolina, 15 yards	0% NCSU +1.6 pts

When it happened

NC State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

NC State 50% North Carolina Q1Q2Q3Q4 245678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while NC State was ahead in it, below while North Carolina was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:46	NC State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected	+2% UNC	NCSU: Touchdown
2	Q1 12:05	NC State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected	+3% NCSU	NCSU: Touchdown
3	Q1 10:58	NC State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+3% NCSU	NCSU: Touchdown
4	Q1 8:40	Face Mask on North Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+2% NCSU	NCSU: Touchdown
5	Q1 1:40	Roughing the Passer on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+2% UNC	UNC: Touchdown
6	Q2 14:06	North Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected	+2% UNC	UNC: Touchdown
7	Q2 5:25	North Carolina converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected	+2% UNC	UNC: Field goal
8	Q2 3:45	North Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+2% UNC	UNC: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · North Carolina · NC State

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