Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Miami at Pittsburgh, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Pittsburgh 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 38 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Miami about even · −2 Pittsburgh
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 10, Pittsburgh wins 0.
- 1 MIA 54 PITT 7
- 2 MIA 42 PITT 2
- 3 MIA 34 PITT 0
- 4 MIA 38 PITT 7
- 5 MIA 34 PITT 7
- 6 MIA 34 PITT 10
- 7 MIA 28 PITT 8
- 8 MIA 27 PITT 10
- 9 MIA 31 PITT 20
- 10 MIA 22 PITT 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 98% of them, Pittsburgh 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 79.4% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- T. Butkowski, 43 yds missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Miami 5 for 28 yards, Pittsburgh 9 for 88 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:30 | Delay of Game on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:22 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +3% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:41 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:14 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PITT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:14 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PITT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +1% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.1 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:36 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 8 yards | +1% MIA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 5:26 | Helping the Runner on Miami, 5 yards | 0% PITT +0.3 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:45 | Pass Interference on Miami, 8 yards | 0% PITT +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Pittsburgh’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:11 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% PITT | MIA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:05 | Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +4% MIA | PITT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:58 | Pittsburgh converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +3% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:13 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:28 | Pittsburgh fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:14 | False Start on Miami, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% PITT | PITT: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:12 | Miami converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:10 | T. Butkowski missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him | +6% MIA | PITT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 100% · Pittsburgh 0%
- Final margin
- Miami by 31
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 28.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 98% · Pittsburgh 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Pittsburgh
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Virginia UVA 27–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Boston College at Syracuse BC 34–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner