ACC · 2026 season, in progress
Duke Blue Devils: luck and expected wins
Duke is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 15th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Duke wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Tulane | W 17–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 2 | @ Illinois | W 31–27 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 3 | vs Stanford | W 35–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | vs William & Mary | W 62–7 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Duke win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Georgia Tech |  Duke by 7.6 | 68% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs North Carolina | Duke by 13.6 | 80% |
| Week 8 · Oct 23 | at Virginia |  Virginia by 3.5 | 41% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Boston College | Duke by 23.2 | 92% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at NC State | Duke by 3.5 | 58% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Miami |  Miami by 14.9 | 19% |
| Week 12 · Nov 20 | vs Clemson | Duke by 10.4 | 73% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Wake Forest | Duke by 3.1 | 57% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Duke’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.21 | +16.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.06 | +5.0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Duke takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ North Carolina | W 32–25 | 13% | +87 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Virginia | W 27–20 | 14% | +86 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Clemson | W 46–45 | 22% | +78 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Illinois | W 31–27 | 25% | +75 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs NC State | W 45–33 | 35% | +65 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Duke would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | @ UConn | L 34–37 | 53% | −53 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Illinois | L 19–45 | 53% | −53 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Georgia Tech | L 18–27 | 38% | −38 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Tulane | L 27–34 | 25% | −25 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Virginia | L 17–34 | 4% | −4 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–5 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 3–2 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Elon | W 45–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | vs Illinois | L 19–45 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 3 | @ Tulane | L 27–34 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 4 | vs NC State | W 45–33 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 5 | @ Syracuse | W 38–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 6 | @ California | W 45–21 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 8 | vs Georgia Tech | L 18–27 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 10 | @ Clemson | W 46–45 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 11 | @ UConn | L 34–37 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 12 | vs Virginia | L 17–34 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | @ North Carolina | W 32–25 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 14 | vs Wake Forest | W 49–32 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 15 | vs Virginia | W 27–20 | 14% | +86 |
| Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | vs Arizona State | W 42–39 | 44% | +56 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- ACC teams by luck
- ACC:
Boston College, 
California, 
Clemson, 
Florida State, 
Georgia Tech, 
Louisville, Miami, 
NC State, 
North Carolina, 
Pittsburgh, 
SMU, 
Stanford, 
Syracuse, Virginia, 
Virginia Tech, 
Wake Forest
How many wins does Duke have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.2 wins.
Was Duke lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.8 wins of luck, the 15th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Duke’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–5 from play worth 5.8 wins, +2.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.2 (+0.8).