Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Duke at Tulane, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Duke 34–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Duke Blue Devils | 27 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Tulane lucky · −25 Duke
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duke wins 3, Tulane wins 7.
- 1 DUKE 45 TULN 24
- 2 DUKE 26 TULN 17
- 3 DUKE 17 TULN 14
- 4 DUKE 21 TULN 23
- 5 DUKE 21 TULN 26
- 6 DUKE 21 TULN 30
- 7 DUKE 13 TULN 25
- 8 DUKE 14 TULN 31
- 9 DUKE 17 TULN 38
- 10 DUKE 3 TULN 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duke wins 25% of them, Tulane 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duke by 17+ | 4.6% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 32.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- T. Pelino, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- P. Durkin, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- T. Pelino, 41 yds blocked · 72% expected
- P. Durkin, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- T. Pelino, 47 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Duke 8 for 80 yards, Tulane 7 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:14 | Roughing the Passer on Tulane, 15 yards | +3% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:40 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 8:40 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:51 | Personal Foul on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% DUKE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:31 | Roughing the Passer on Duke, 15 yards | +3% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:53 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +2.3 pts |
| Q2 4:54 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% TULN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 3:58 | Illegal Shift on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% DUKE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% DUKE +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% DUKE +3.9 pts |
| Q4 9:44 | Roughing the Kicker on Duke, 15 yards | 0% TULN +3.6 pts |
| Q4 9:37 | Illegal Snap on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:58 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | 0% TULN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | Face Mask on Duke, 15 yards | +2% TULN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:40 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedFalse Start on Duke, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Duke, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% TULN | DUKE: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:35 | T. Pelino missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +5% TULN | DUKE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 5:04 | Tulane converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:56 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% TULN | TULN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:42 | Duke converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 10:53 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 11:22 | Tulane converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:35 | Tulane converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +4% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duke 17% · Tulane 83%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 6.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Duke 25% · Tulane 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Duke · 
Tulane
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner