luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 11, 2025

NC State at Wake Forest, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

NC State beat Wake Forest 34–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, NC State wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to NC State.

Before kickoff NC State was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:19 left): Return touchdown by NC State, worth 19 points of win probability to NC State.

Final

NC State Wolfpack 34
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 24

September 11, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: NC State −7.5

Luck index +60 NC State lucky · −60 Wake Forest

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. NC State wins 4, Wake Forest wins 6.

  1. 1 NCSU 21 WAKE 0
  2. 2 NCSU 27 WAKE 14
  3. 3 NCSU 17 WAKE 10
  4. 4 NCSU 20 WAKE 17
  5. 5 NCSU 21 WAKE 24
  6. 6 NCSU 14 WAKE 19
  7. 7 NCSU 3 WAKE 13
  8. 8 NCSU 14 WAKE 27
  9. 9 NCSU 12 WAKE 30
  10. 10 NCSU 20 WAKE 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

NC State wins 40% of them, Wake Forest 60%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
NC State by 17+8.5%
NC State by 9–1611.6%
NC State by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation5.1%
Wake Forest by 1–821.8%
Wake Forest by 9–1616.6%
Wake Forest by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 10, without the luck NC State by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Calvert, 28 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 24 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: NC State 9 for 84 yards, Wake Forest 8 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:48 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on NC State, 15 yards +13% WAKE +2.1 pts
Q1 14:44 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAKE +0.8 pts
Q1 8:29 Horse Collar Tackle on NC State, 4 yards +2% WAKE +1.0 pts
Q1 8:26 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NCSU +1.1 pts
Q1 4:54 Holding on NC State, 10 yards +2% WAKE +0.9 pts
Q1 0:43 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards +5% NCSU +2.2 pts
Q2 13:10 Offside on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.6 pts
Q3 10:56 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NCSU +2.2 pts
Q3 9:31 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards +3% NCSU +1.1 pts
Q3 2:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on NC State, 15 yards +3% WAKE +0.9 pts
Q4 14:29 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 12 yards +6% NCSU +1.7 pts
Q4 11:07 Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards +2% NCSU +1.6 pts
Q4 11:07 Holding on NC State, 10 yards +2% WAKE +1.4 pts
Q4 7:12 Illegal Formation on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q4 5:52 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards +1% NCSU +1.0 pts
Q4 5:10 Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yards +3% WAKE +2.9 pts
Q4 4:00 Running Into the Kicker on Wake Forest, 5 yards +1% NCSU +2.2 pts

When it happened

Wake Forest’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wake Forest was ahead in it, below while NC State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:48 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% WAKE WAKE: Punt
2 Q1 14:04 NC State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% NCSU NCSU: Punt
3 Q1 1:19 Return touchdown by NC StateSpecial teams +19% NCSU NCSU: Punt
4 Q3 10:56 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:29 NC State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NCSU NCSU: Punt
6 Q3 2:15 NC State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% WAKE NCSU: Punt
7 Q4 14:29 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 12 yardsJudgment calls +6% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:37 NC State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% NCSU NCSU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

NC State 92% · Wake Forest 8%

Final margin
NC State by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for NC State
Luck-adjusted margin
NC State by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
NC State 40% · Wake Forest 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · NC State · Wake Forest

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