Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
William & Mary at Virginia, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat William & Mary 55–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia was a 98% favorite.
Final
 William & Mary Tribe | 16 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Virginia about even · −1 William & Mary
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. William & Mary wins 0, Virginia wins 10.
- 1 W&M 21 UVA 28
- 2 W&M 14 UVA 31
- 3 W&M 14 UVA 37
- 4 W&M 10 UVA 38
- 5 W&M 10 UVA 42
- 6 W&M 21 UVA 58
- 7 W&M 7 UVA 47
- 8 W&M 21 UVA 65
- 9 W&M 5 UVA 55
- 10 W&M 13 UVA 74
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
William & Mary wins 1% of them, Virginia 99%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| William & Mary by 17+ | 0.0% |
| William & Mary by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| William & Mary by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 4.6% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 93.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- W. Bettridge, 31 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: William & Mary 2 for 10 yards, Virginia 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% W&M +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:33 | Illegal Substitution on William & Mary, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:49 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | 0% W&M 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% W&M +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% W&M +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on William & Mary, 10 yards | 0% UVA +2.5 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:46 | William & Mary was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% W&M | W&M: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:33 | Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIllegal Substitution on William & Mary, 0 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:23 | William & Mary was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% W&M | W&M: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:00 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% W&M | UVA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:37 | William & Mary was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% UVA | W&M: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | Virginia converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:49 | Virginia converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedHolding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:01 | Virginia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
William & Mary 0% · Virginia 100%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 39
- Luck in points
- 13.8 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 25.2
- Replay with same day's form
- William & Mary 1% · Virginia 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
William & Mary · 
Virginia
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Richmond at North Carolina UNC 41–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner