Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Towson at Maryland, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat Towson 44–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Maryland wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Maryland was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Towson Tigers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Maryland about even · 0 Towson
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Towson wins 0, Maryland wins 10.
- 1 TOW 17 MD 28
- 2 TOW 24 MD 44
- 3 TOW 0 MD 24
- 4 TOW 21 MD 51
- 5 TOW 17 MD 51
- 6 TOW 14 MD 51
- 7 TOW 14 MD 54
- 8 TOW 0 MD 45
- 9 TOW 16 MD 66
- 10 TOW 0 MD 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Towson wins 0% of them, Maryland 100%. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Towson by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Towson by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Towson by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- S. O'Haire, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- S. O'Haire, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Williams, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Towson 2 for 11 yards, Maryland 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:56 | Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% TOW +3.4 pts |
| Q2 7:01 | Illegal Substitution on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:11 | Pass Interference on Towson, 6 yards | 0% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:47 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOW +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:23 | Illegal Formation on Towson, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:56 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% TOW +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:33 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% TOW +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:10 | Towson was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% MD | TOW: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:47 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% TOW | MD: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 11:43 | S. O'Haire made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +0% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:58 | Towson was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% MD | TOW: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:46 | Towson was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% MD | TOW: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:25 | Maryland converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:55 | Towson converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +0% TOW | TOW: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:53 | Maryland converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% MD | MD: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Towson 0% · Maryland 100%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 27
- Luck in points
- 11.0 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 16.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Towson 0% · Maryland 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Towson · 
Maryland
More from Week 3 2025
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner