Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Western Michigan at Illinois, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Western Michigan 38–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 0 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Illinois about even · −1 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 0, Illinois wins 10.
- 1 WMU 14 ILL 23
- 2 WMU 3 ILL 17
- 3 WMU 6 ILL 24
- 4 WMU 2 ILL 24
- 5 WMU 10 ILL 35
- 6 WMU 10 ILL 38
- 7 WMU 3 ILL 35
- 8 WMU 3 ILL 38
- 9 WMU 6 ILL 45
- 10 WMU 3 ILL 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 1% of them, Illinois 99%. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 89.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Olano, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- P. Domschke, 46 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 6 for 103 yards, Illinois 5 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:53 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards | 0% ILL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 1:20 | Horse Collar Tackle on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +1% ILL +2.6 pts |
| Q2 6:32 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | 0% ILL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:05 | False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% WMU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 11 yards | +1% WMU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 2:54 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 11 yards | 0% ILL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Michigan, 50 yards | 0% ILL +3.1 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Offside on Western Michigan, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:47 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | 0% WMU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:55 | Illegal Formation on Illinois, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% WMU +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:18 | Illinois converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% ILL | ILL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:30 | Illinois converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% ILL | ILL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:55 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:06 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +1% ILL | WMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:00 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +1% WMU | ILL: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:20 | Horse Collar Tackle on Western Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 5:05 | P. Domschke missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ILL | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 0:49 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +1% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 0% · Illinois 100%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 38
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 28.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 1% · Illinois 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Illinois
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
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- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
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- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
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- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
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