luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Norfolk State at Rutgers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Rutgers beat Norfolk State 60–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rutgers wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Rutgers was a 100% favorite.

Final

Norfolk State Spartans 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 60

September 13, 2025 · SHI Stadium · Closing line: Rutgers −44.5

Luck index +2 Rutgers about even · −2 Norfolk State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Norfolk State wins 0, Rutgers wins 10.

  1. 1 NORF 21 RUTG 27
  2. 2 NORF 31 RUTG 42
  3. 3 NORF 14 RUTG 31
  4. 4 NORF 24 RUTG 44
  5. 5 NORF 13 RUTG 35
  6. 6 NORF 7 RUTG 34
  7. 7 NORF 10 RUTG 41
  8. 8 NORF 7 RUTG 41
  9. 9 NORF 14 RUTG 52
  10. 10 NORF 3 RUTG 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Norfolk State wins 2% of them, Rutgers 98%. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 50.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Norfolk State by 17+0.0%
Norfolk State by 9–160.3%
Norfolk State by 1–81.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Rutgers by 1–85.3%
Rutgers by 9–1611.1%
Rutgers by 17+82.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to Rutgers: the final margin was Rutgers by 50, without the luck Rutgers by 40.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Helfrich, 34 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Patel, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Patel, 44 yds made · 67% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Norfolk State 6 for 47 yards, Rutgers 5 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:58 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RUTG +0.9 pts
Q1 10:51 Holding on Norfolk State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% RUTG +2.6 pts
Q1 2:17 Holding on Norfolk State, 10 yards 0% RUTG +1.2 pts
Q1 2:17 False Start on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RUTG +0.5 pts
Q2 7:42 Offside on Rutgers, 29 yards · pre-snap 0% NORF +1.8 pts
Q3 9:56 Face Mask on Rutgers, 15 yards 0% NORF +2.6 pts
Q3 7:51 Offside on Norfolk State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RUTG +0.4 pts
Q4 13:15 Pass Interference on Norfolk State, 12 yards 0% RUTG +0.8 pts
Q4 13:08 Illegal Formation on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NORF +0.5 pts
Q4 11:55 False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NORF +0.4 pts
Q4 7:32 Face Mask on Rutgers, 15 yards 0% NORF +1.1 pts

When it happened

Rutgers’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Rutgers was ahead in it, below while Norfolk State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:15 Norfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% RUTG NORF: Punt
2 Q1 11:55 Norfolk State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% NORF NORF: Punt
3 Q1 10:51 Holding on Norfolk State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% RUTG RUTG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 9:59 Norfolk State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% RUTG NORF: Punt
5 Q1 3:13 Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% NORF RUTG: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:17 Holding on Norfolk State, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Norfolk State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% RUTG RUTG: Touchdown
7 Q1 0:48 Return touchdown by RutgersSpecial teams +0% RUTG RUTG: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:42 Offside on Rutgers, 29 yardsPre-snap flags +0% NORF NORF: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Norfolk State 0% · Rutgers 100%

Final margin
Rutgers by 50
Luck in points
9.8 for Rutgers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rutgers by 40.2
Replay with same day's form
Norfolk State 2% · Rutgers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Norfolk State · Rutgers

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