Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Youngstown State at Michigan State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan State beat Youngstown State 41–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan State was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Youngstown State Penguins | 24 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Michigan State about even · −4 Youngstown State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Youngstown State wins 0, Michigan State wins 10.
- 1 YSU 24 MSU 28
- 2 YSU 24 MSU 31
- 3 YSU 24 MSU 35
- 4 YSU 12 MSU 28
- 5 YSU 9 MSU 28
- 6 YSU 20 MSU 42
- 7 YSU 16 MSU 42
- 8 YSU 6 MSU 35
- 9 YSU 10 MSU 45
- 10 YSU 7 MSU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Youngstown State wins 4% of them, Michigan State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Youngstown State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Youngstown State by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Youngstown State by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 16.0% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 71.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Lastovka, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Connington, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- A. Lastovka, 37 yds missed · 78% expected
- M. Connington, 27 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Youngstown State 3 for 22 yards, Michigan State 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:57 | Illegal Substitution on Youngstown State, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:59 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% YSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Sideline Interference on Youngstown State, 15 yards | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% YSU +3.3 pts |
| Q3 6:16 | False Start on Youngstown State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSU +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Youngstown State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedYoungstown State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedYoungstown State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedYoungstown State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedYoungstown State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +1% YSU | YSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:54 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Youngstown State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +1% MSU | YSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:16 | Michigan State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +2% YSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:09 | Youngstown State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% YSU | YSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 1:14 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedSideline Interference on Youngstown State, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Michigan State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% YSU | MSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:00 | M. Connington made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +1% MSU | MSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Youngstown State 1% · Michigan State 99%
- Final margin
- Michigan State by 17
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan State by 15.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Youngstown State 4% · Michigan State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Youngstown State · 
Michigan State
More from Week 3 2025
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Penn State PSU 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Indiana State at Indiana IU 73–0 · replay 100% for the winner