Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Liberty at Bowling Green, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Bowling Green beat Liberty 23–13, but the replays lean toward Liberty: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Bowling Green.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:22 left): Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to Bowling Green.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 13 |
|---|---|
 Bowling Green Falcons | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Bowling Green very lucky · −67 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 7, Bowling Green wins 3.
- 1 LIB 35 BGSU 7
- 2 LIB 24 BGSU 3
- 3 LIB 24 BGSU 7
- 4 LIB 34 BGSU 20
- 5 LIB 27 BGSU 17
- 6 LIB 19 BGSU 14
- 7 LIB 13 BGSU 10
- 8 LIB 20 BGSU 23
- 9 LIB 21 BGSU 28
- 10 LIB 20 BGSU 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 67% of them, Bowling Green 33%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bowling Green by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 25.2% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 4.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kleather, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- B. Beck, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
- J. Kleather, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Kleather, 50 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: Liberty 6 for 48 yards, Bowling Green 11 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:41 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.5 pts |
| Q1 8:05 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +6% LIB +2.8 pts |
| Q1 6:04 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +2% LIB +1.2 pts |
| Q1 2:32 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% BGSU +4.6 pts |
| Q2 12:27 | False Start on Liberty, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 6:48 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +2% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:14 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% BGSU +2.6 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:01 | Illegal Formation on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LIB +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +2% BGSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:07 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BGSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:33 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +4% LIB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 0:22 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +13% BGSU +3.5 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Liberty, 8 yards | +2% BGSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:18 | Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 15 yards | 0% LIB +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Bowling Green’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:32 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:55 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 3:14 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:08 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:41 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 4:29 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% BGSU | BGSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 0:22 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% BGSU | BGSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 13:43 | J. Kleather made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before | +7% BGSU | BGSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 4% · Bowling Green 96%
- Final margin
- Bowling Green by 10
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bowling Green by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 67% · Bowling Green 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
Bowling Green
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech LT 49–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner