Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
UConn at Delaware, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat UConn 44–41, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Delaware wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 42 points of win probability to Delaware.
Before kickoff UConn was a 71% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:00 left): N. Reed made a 43-yard field goal, worth 37 points of win probability to Delaware.
Final (OT)
 UConn Huskies | 41 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Delaware lucky · −50 UConn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UConn wins 5, Delaware wins 5.
- 1 CONN 37 DEL 9
- 2 CONN 42 DEL 24
- 3 CONN 47 DEL 35
- 4 CONN 38 DEL 31
- 5 CONN 24 DEL 21
- 6 CONN 35 DEL 37
- 7 CONN 13 DEL 20
- 8 CONN 28 DEL 38
- 9 CONN 28 DEL 44
- 10 CONN 17 DEL 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UConn wins 50% of them, Delaware 50%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UConn by 17+ | 13.6% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 14.7% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 12.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Freeman, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Reed, 47 yds missed · 56% expected
- N. Reed, 43 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Freeman, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: UConn 7 for 67 yards, Delaware 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:47 | Penalty on UConn, 15 yards | +3% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 13:47 | Penalty on UConn, 4 yards | +3% DEL +1.3 pts |
| Q1 4:41 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +1% CONN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:41 | Penalty on UConn, 15 yards | +5% DEL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 11:01 | Holding on UConn, 4 yards | +4% DEL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +5% CONN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Horse Collar Tackle on Delaware, 15 yards | +5% CONN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CONN +2.1 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Penalty on UConn, 15 yards | +5% DEL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Ineligible Downfield on Delaware, 5 yards | +5% CONN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:10 | Pass Interference on UConn, 9 yards | +11% DEL +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | Delaware converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedPenalty on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment callsPenalty on UConn, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +12% DEL | DEL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 7:52 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment callsHorse Collar Tackle on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 5:05 | Delaware converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedDelaware converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +10% DEL | DEL: End of half |
| 4 | Q4 9:54 | UConn converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedPenalty on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment callsIneligible Downfield on Delaware, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +11% CONN | CONN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 6:50 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedN. Reed missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +10% CONN | CONN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 2:10 | UConn was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedDelaware converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedPass Interference on UConn, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +33% DEL | CONN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:00 | The game turned hereN. Reed made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him | +37% DEL | – |
| 8 | OT | C. Freeman made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +8% DEL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UConn 61% · Delaware 39%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UConn by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UConn 50% · Delaware 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
UConn · 
Delaware
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech LT 49–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner