Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Florida at LSU, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
LSU beat Florida 20–10, but the replays lean toward Florida: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
LSU won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers
Before kickoff LSU was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:08 left): Return touchdown by LSU, worth 21 points of win probability to LSU.
Final
 Florida Gators | 10 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 LSU very lucky · −70 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida wins 7, LSU wins 3.
- 1 FLA 34 LSU 0
- 2 FLA 33 LSU 7
- 3 FLA 32 LSU 14
- 4 FLA 20 LSU 6
- 5 FLA 24 LSU 14
- 6 FLA 30 LSU 24
- 7 FLA 14 LSU 12
- 8 FLA 24 LSU 27
- 9 FLA 7 LSU 14
- 10 FLA 20 LSU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
LSU won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for LSU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.08 | worse by 0.07 |
| Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.04 | better by 0.06 |
| LSU offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.11 | worse by 0.13 |
| LSU defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.06 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida wins 70% of them, LSU 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida by 17+ | 31.2% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| LSU by 17+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Ramos, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- D. Ramos, 45 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Florida 7 for 57 yards, LSU 7 for 103 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:05 | Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yards | +3% FLA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:42 | Pass Interference on LSU, 8 yards | +2% FLA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:44 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +3% LSU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:47 | Holding on Florida, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +16% LSU +6.7 pts |
| Q1 1:38 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +3% FLA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:34 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:29 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% FLA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:04 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:25 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 50 yards | +5% FLA +2.4 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on Florida, 11 yards | +2% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:05 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:25 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +5% LSU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:08 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:34 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +4% LSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:27 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% FLA | LSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:47 | Holding on Florida, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% LSU | LSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 10:46 | LSU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 9:39 | LSU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 3:25 | Florida converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +12% FLA | FLA: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 9:25 | Holding on Florida, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LSU | LSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:08 | False Start on Florida, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by LSUSpecial teams | +21% LSU | LSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:08 | Florida converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +4% FLA | FLA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida 3% · LSU 97%
- Final margin
- LSU by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- LSU by 11.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida 70% · LSU 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Florida · 
LSU
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Temple OU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Alcorn State at Mississippi State MSST 63–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner