Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Louisiana at Missouri, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Louisiana 52–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 10 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Missouri about even · 0 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 0, Missouri wins 10.
- 1 UL 21 MIZ 35
- 2 UL 14 MIZ 37
- 3 UL 13 MIZ 40
- 4 UL 14 MIZ 45
- 5 UL 14 MIZ 48
- 6 UL 14 MIZ 52
- 7 UL 7 MIZ 48
- 8 UL 14 MIZ 59
- 9 UL 0 MIZ 49
- 10 UL 21 MIZ 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 0% of them, Missouri 100%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- R. Meyer, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Meyer, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 5 for 27 yards, Missouri 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:37 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards | 0% UL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 8:29 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:00 | False Start on Louisiana, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.2 pts |
| Q2 4:39 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Offside on Louisiana, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +2.2 pts |
| Q3 14:21 | Penalty on Missouri, 10 yards | 0% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:56 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIZ +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:51 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% MIZ | UL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:18 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% MIZ | UL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:36 | Missouri converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:38 | Missouri converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:26 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% MIZ | UL: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:37 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UL | UL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:18 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% MIZ | UL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:24 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% MIZ | MIZ: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 0% · Missouri 100%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 42
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 33.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 0% · Missouri 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
Missouri
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner