Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
App State at Southern Miss, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Southern Miss beat App State 38–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Southern Miss wins 9 of 10.
An off day for App State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Southern Miss it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff App State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:40 left): Return touchdown by Southern Miss, worth 26 points of win probability to Southern Miss.
Final
 App State Mountaineers | 22 |
|---|---|
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Southern Miss about even · −8 App State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. App State wins 1, Southern Miss wins 9.
- 1 APP 21 USM 13
- 2 APP 21 USM 24
- 3 APP 20 USM 28
- 4 APP 17 USM 31
- 5 APP 24 USM 41
- 6 APP 10 USM 30
- 7 APP 21 USM 45
- 8 APP 7 USM 34
- 9 APP 24 USM 56
- 10 APP 7 USM 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for App State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Southern Miss it would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for App State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| App State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.12 | worse by 0.08 |
| App State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.13 | worse by 0.13 |
| Southern Miss offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | −0.01 | better by 0.27 |
| Southern Miss defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.13 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
App State wins 8% of them, Southern Miss 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| App State by 17+ | 0.7% |
| App State by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| App State by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 62.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Harradine, 39 yds made · 73% expected
- D. De Freitas, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
Penalties: App State 4 for 40 yards, Southern Miss 8 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:00 | Illegal Forward Pass on Southern Miss, 4 yards | +3% APP +1.5 pts |
| Q1 7:05 | Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 7 yards | 0% APP +1.4 pts |
| Q1 5:10 | Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yards | +3% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern Miss, 9 yards | +2% APP +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +3% APP +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:25 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yards | +3% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Roughing the Passer on Southern Miss, 15 yards | 0% APP +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:58 | App State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% APP | APP: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:32 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:58 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% USM | APP: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:34 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% USM | USM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 10:40 | Return touchdown by Southern MissSpecial teams | +26% USM | USM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:09 | App State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% APP | APP: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 5:03 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% USM | USM: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:33 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% USM | APP: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
App State 3% · Southern Miss 97%
- Final margin
- Southern Miss by 16
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for Southern Miss
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- App State 8% · Southern Miss 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
App State · 
Southern Miss
More from Week 3 2025
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Memphis at Troy MEM 28–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Kentucky at Marshall MRSH 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner