Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Georgia at Tennessee, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Tennessee 44–41, but the replays lean toward Tennessee: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 27 points of win probability to Georgia.
Georgia won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tennessee it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff Georgia was a 59% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): M. Gilbert missed a 43-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to Georgia. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:32 left): Georgia converted 4th & 6.
Final (OT)
 Georgia Bulldogs | 44 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +80 Georgia very lucky · −80 Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 2, Tennessee wins 8.
- 1 UGA 38 TENN 20
- 2 UGA 34 TENN 31
- 3 UGA 38 TENN 40
- 4 UGA 45 TENN 49
- 5 UGA 34 TENN 42
- 6 UGA 28 TENN 41
- 7 UGA 17 TENN 34
- 8 UGA 21 TENN 42
- 9 UGA 31 TENN 56
- 10 UGA 21 TENN 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Georgia won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tennessee it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for Georgia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.06 | better by 0.05 |
| Georgia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.05 | worse by 0.24 |
| Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.10 | better by 0.19 |
| Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.03 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 20% of them, Tennessee 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Tennessee by 17+ | 39.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Woodring, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- P. Woodring, 48 yds made · 62% expected
- P. Woodring, 24 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Gilbert, 48 yds made · 60% expected
- M. Gilbert, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
- M. Gilbert, 42 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Georgia 5 for 39 yards, Tennessee 10 for 82 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:48 | Illegal Substitution on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UGA +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:30 | Intentional Grounding on Tennessee, 0 yards | 0% UGA 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:00 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 9 yards | +5% TENN +2.4 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UGA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TENN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Georgia, 10 yards | +2% TENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:49 | Offside on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:17 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 12 yards | +5% UGA +2.1 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | +5% UGA +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +1% TENN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:08 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:16 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | +4% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:21 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% UGA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:18 | Georgia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 9:41 | Georgia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% UGA | UGA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 6:40 | M. Gilbert made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +6% TENN | TENN: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 2:32 | Georgia converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedGeorgia’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +36% UGA | UGA: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 1:51 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% TENN | TENN: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:42 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% TENN | TENN: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:03 | The game turned hereM. Gilbert missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +19% UGA | – |
| 8 | OT | M. Gilbert made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him | +10% UGA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 57% · Tennessee 43%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 20% · Tennessee 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Georgia · 
Tennessee
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Temple OU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Alcorn State at Mississippi State MSST 63–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner