luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Alcorn State at Mississippi State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat Alcorn State 63–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Alcorn State Braves 0
Mississippi State Bulldogs 63

September 13, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Mississippi State −42.5

Luck index 0 Mississippi State about even · 0 Alcorn State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alcorn State wins 0, Mississippi State wins 10.

  1. 1 ALCN 0 MSST 37
  2. 2 ALCN 0 MSST 45
  3. 3 ALCN 6 MSST 54
  4. 4 ALCN 7 MSST 59
  5. 5 ALCN 0 MSST 54
  6. 6 ALCN 3 MSST 60
  7. 7 ALCN 0 MSST 61
  8. 8 ALCN 7 MSST 70
  9. 9 ALCN 3 MSST 70
  10. 10 ALCN 0 MSST 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alcorn State wins 0% of them, Mississippi State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 63.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alcorn State by 17+0.0%
Alcorn State by 9–160.0%
Alcorn State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Mississippi State by 1–80.3%
Mississippi State by 9–161.3%
Mississippi State by 17+98.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Mississippi State by 63, without the luck Mississippi State by 55.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Alcorn State 9 for 74 yards, Mississippi State 9 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:55 False Start on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.5 pts
Q1 10:09 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALCN +1.0 pts
Q1 9:41 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ALCN +2.8 pts
Q1 8:36 Face Mask on Alcorn State, 15 yards 0% MSST +3.1 pts
Q1 3:58 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 5 yards 0% ALCN +2.4 pts
Q1 1:49 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.5 pts
Q2 14:19 Illegal Substitution on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q2 6:05 Intentional Grounding on Alcorn State, 4 yards 0% MSST +0.8 pts
Q2 3:50 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% ALCN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:46 Holding on Alcorn State, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q3 10:00 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALCN +0.3 pts
Q3 9:55 Holding on Alcorn State, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.9 pts
Q3 8:15 False Start on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q3 5:47 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q3 4:18 Pass Interference on Alcorn State, 15 yards 0% MSST +2.2 pts
Q3 3:48 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards 0% ALCN +2.2 pts
Q4 3:54 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ALCN +1.3 pts
Q4 1:12 False Start on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.2 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Alcorn State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:12 Alcorn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% ALCN ALCN: Punt
2 Q1 11:56 Alcorn State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% MSST ALCN: Punt
3 Q1 9:41 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% ALCN ALCN: End of half
4 Q1 1:49 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +0% MSST ALCN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 1:46 Holding on Alcorn State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% MSST MSST: End of half
6 Q3 9:55 Holding on Alcorn State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:47 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% MSST ALCN: Turnover
8 Q3 4:18 Pass Interference on Alcorn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MSST MSST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alcorn State 0% · Mississippi State 100%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 63
Luck in points
7.5 for Mississippi State
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 55.5
Replay with same day's form
Alcorn State 0% · Mississippi State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Alcorn State · Mississippi State

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