luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Arkansas at Ole Miss, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat Arkansas 41–35, but the replays lean toward Arkansas: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Ole Miss.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:52 left): Holding on Ole Miss, 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to Arkansas.

Final

Arkansas Razorbacks 35
Ole Miss Rebels 41

September 13, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −3.5

Luck index +63 Ole Miss very lucky · −63 Arkansas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas wins 6, Ole Miss wins 4.

  1. 1 ARK 45 MISS 13
  2. 2 ARK 28 MISS 7
  3. 3 ARK 34 MISS 20
  4. 4 ARK 17 MISS 7
  5. 5 ARK 27 MISS 20
  6. 6 ARK 27 MISS 24
  7. 7 ARK 14 MISS 17
  8. 8 ARK 14 MISS 20
  9. 9 ARK 24 MISS 35
  10. 10 ARK 16 MISS 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas wins 63% of them, Ole Miss 37%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas by 17+23.3%
Arkansas by 9–1616.8%
Arkansas by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation6.8%
Ole Miss by 1–817.4%
Ole Miss by 9–167.8%
Ole Miss by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to Arkansas: the final margin was Ole Miss by 6, without the luck Ole Miss by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Starzyk, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 36 yds made · 80% expected
  • S. Starzyk, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arkansas 6 for 60 yards, Ole Miss 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:19 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 8 yards +5% MISS +2.3 pts
Q1 7:14 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +3% MISS +1.4 pts
Q1 7:14 Offside on Arkansas, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% ARK 0.0 pts
Q1 7:14 Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARK +0.1 pts
Q1 0:48 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MISS +1.6 pts
Q2 13:40 Penalty on Ole Miss, 15 yards +3% ARK +1.6 pts
Q2 13:19 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards +2% MISS +0.8 pts
Q2 7:52 Holding on Ole Miss, 4 yards, wiping out the play +12% ARK +5.1 pts
Q2 6:14 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards +6% MISS +2.3 pts
Q2 5:41 Face Mask on Arkansas, 15 yards +4% MISS +1.6 pts
Q3 5:21 Holding on Ole Miss, 9 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARK +3.2 pts
Q3 5:08 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% ARK +2.7 pts
Q4 8:22 Penalty on Ole Miss, 15 yards +2% ARK +1.6 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while Arkansas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:10 Arkansas converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% ARK ARK: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:51 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% MISS MISS: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:52 Holding on Ole Miss, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% ARK ARK: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:13 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% MISS MISS: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:39 Arkansas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% ARK ARK: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:21 Holding on Ole Miss, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% ARK ARK: Missed field goal
7 Q3 5:08 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% ARK ARK: Missed field goal
8 Q3 4:56 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MISS MISS: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas 12% · Ole Miss 88%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 6
Luck in points
1.0 for Arkansas
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas 63% · Ole Miss 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Arkansas · Ole Miss

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